The Houston Texans (4-5) visit the Tennessee Titans (1-8) this Sunday in an AFC South matchup in the NFL. Houston enters with a chance to get back to the .500 mark for the season with a win, while Tennessee is trying to get just their second win of the season with a victory here. I have analyzed this matchup from Nissan Stadium and you can find my Texans vs Titans prediction below.
Our Texans vs Titans Pick
- Pick: Over 37.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Houston is gaining traction in recent weeks. The Texans have won two of their last three games and are a win away from getting back to .500 after a disastrous start. They will have to figure out a way to continue moving in the right direction without the services of quarterback CJ Stroud, who is out with a concussion.
Tennessee remains stuck near the bottom of the league in almost every major metric this season. At 1-8, the Titans have very little to play for. That could go in one of two directions for Tennessee. They could either play with pride and try to finish the season strong despite their struggles. Or they could play without that pride and get run over down the stretch.
Quarterback Play
Davis Mills is set to play quarterback for the Texans in the place of CJ Stroud for the Texans. That was not a bad thing for Houston last week, as they lit up the Jacksonville Jaguars in a 36-29 win. It will be interesting to see if Mills can sustain that level on the road against another division opponent.
Cam Ward has had a rough go of things in his first season as a pro quarterback. He has five touchdown passes and six interceptions going into Week 11. The goal for this season for the Titans has just become building Ward’s confidence and ability to make a positive impact ahead of next season.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tennessee is 3-6 against the spread this season.
- Houston is 4-5 against the spread entering Week 11 play.
- Houston is 3-5-1 on over/unders this season, favoring the under slightly.
- The over is 6-3 in games featuring the Titans this year.
- Houston shut out Tennessee 26-0 earlier this season, showing the potential to dominate an inferior Titans team.
Texans vs Titans Model Projection
Score Projection: Texans 27 – Titans 13
Win Probability: Texans 72% | Titans 28%
Final Thoughts
I’m confident in the ability of Davis Mills to move the ball for the Texans after what we saw against Jacksonville last week. I think that the Texans will do the majority of the scoring in this game. But instead of laying the points with Davis Mills on the road against a division opponent, I think that the over is the best bet for this matchup in a game where both offenses will at least be competent.
