The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in a huge NFL Week 4 matchup on Sunday. Both teams enter the contest with 1-2 records and the loser will go from being a Super Bowl favorite to 1-3 on the year. Baltimore has been explosive on offense and the Chiefs have relied on their defense. But these teams will need to play better on both sides of the ball to get a win here. Continue reading to get my Ravens vs Chiefs prediction for Sunday’s massive matchup.
Our Ravens vs Chiefs Pick
- Pick: Ravens -2.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: CBS
Ravens vs Chiefs Odds
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Ravens -2.5 |
| Moneyline | Ravens -142, Chiefs +120 |
| Total Points | 48.5 |
Key Storylines
- Baltimore took another loss to an elite team in Week 3. They lost 38-30 at home against the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football and the defense of the Ravens couldn’t get stops against Jared Goff and the Detroit offense in that game.
- Kansas City averages only 20 points per game and their defense carried them to their first win of the season. The Chiefs held the Giants to just nine points in Week 3 and the Chiefs will look for more from Patrick Mahomes and company this week.
- The Ravens are playing on a short week of rest here. Baltimore played on Monday night to close out Week 3. They will have to go on the road with less recovery time than usual to try and best the defending AFC champions.
- Derrick Henry has fumbled twice in key situations in games this year. He was visibly upset with his fumble that hurt his team’s chances against the Lions and will look to put those mistakes behind him here.
- Lamar Jackson was sacked seven times against the Lions. Baltimore’s offensive line needs to be better against another aggressive defense this week.
Quarterback Play
- Lamar Jackson (Ravens): Jackson is off to a very nice start for the Ravens this year. He has nine touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception this season. Jackson looks like an MVP candidate again this year but he needs help from the team around him to get back into the win column.
- Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): Patrick Mahomes has just three touchdown passes through three games for the Chiefs. He has only thrown one interception, which is commendable, but the lack of explosive passing production is a concern for a Chiefs team that is lacking elite receiver talent to help their generational talent at quarterback.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Both teams are 1-2 against the spread to start this year.
- All three Ravens games have gone over their totals this season.
- The Chiefs have had two of their first three games stay under their totals.
Ravens vs Chiefs Model Projection
- Score Projection: Ravens 27 – Chiefs 20
- Win Probability: Ravens 58%, Chiefs 42%
Final Thoughts
I think we see the Ravens bounce back nicely from their loss to the Lions. The Chiefs were very good on defense against the Giants in Week 3, but the Giants are a lot easier to stop than the Ravens. Expect Jackson to stay on his feet more consistently than he did against Detroit and for the Ravens to get back to the .500 mark for the year.
