The Houston Rockets head to the Bay Area to face the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night in a huge NBA Cup game with plenty on the line. Both teams are 1-2 in NBA Cup competition and would love a win here to help them stay alive with a chance to advance. Before this contest tips off from San Francisco, you can continue reading to get my Rockets vs Warriors prediction.
Our Rockets vs Warriors Pick
Pick: Warriors -2.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 26, 2025, 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- The Rockets are rolling this season. Houston enters at 11–4, riding a hot streak after a dominant 114–92 victory over the Phoenix Suns. Their offense is scoring 122.3 points per game and looks sharp and in rhythm.
- The Rockets confirmed that key forward Kevin Durant will be out for this game due to personal reasons. His absence will be felt by the Rockets given his season average of 24.6 points. It also shifts more responsibility to the supporting cast of the Rockets. Recent games have seen guard Reed Sheppard heat up with Durant out.
- The Warriors have won only 2 of their last 5 games, though they enter this game at 6-1 at home for the season. Their depth could be key, especially with the Rockets being banged up at this point in the year.
- The Warriors’ three-point shooting recently received a boost after the veteran Buddy Hield snapped out of a slump with a season-high 20 points, hitting multiple threes in their most recent game. Golden State’s floor spacing could challenge Houston’s defense and open driving lanes.
- The game doubles as part of the 2025 NBA Cup group stage, giving each side extra incentive beyond a regular-season win. The losing team is out of cup contention, while the winner will need some help from elsewhere if they want to advance.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first of three games between these teams this season.
- Houston is 10–5 against the spread so far this season.
- Golden State is 10-9 against the spread going into Wednesday night.
- The Rockets have gone over the total in 10 of their first 15 games.
- Golden State has gone 13-6 to the over on the season.
Best Player Props to Watch
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Buddy Hield | Over 1.5 Threes |
| Reed Sheppard | Over 14.5 Points |
| Alperen Şengün | Over 10.5 Rebounds |
Rockets vs Warriors Model Projection
Score Projection: Houston 112 – Golden State 117
Win Probability: Houston 47%, Golden State 53%
Final Thoughts
This is going to be a tight game and I think there is some value Warriors to win and cover the number at home. Golden State has lost just once on their home floor and they aren’t likely to lose here with Kevin Durant out of commission for the Rockets. This will be a tight game throughout, but the veterans of the Warriors will bring it home in the end.
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