UFC Vegas 59 sees our return to the UFC Apex for a Fight Night Card. UFC Vegas 59 takes place on Saturday August 6th, 2022. The first fighters will make the walk to the octagon at 7PM EST. The card is scheduled for 12 fights, with a light heavyweight main event between heavy hitters Jamahal Hill and Thiago “Marreta” Santos. UFC Vegas 59 will also hold the finales The Ultimate Fighter 30. The finales will take place in both the men’s heavyweight and women’s flyweight divisions.
With the returning to the UFC Apex, the smaller sized octagon will be used. This tends to favor fighters that prefer more constant engagement and wrestlers/grapplers.
UFC Vegas 59 Promo Code
Caesar’s Sportsbook has you covered for the best UFC Vegas 59 Promo. They will continue to offer you a free $1500 risk free first bet! This offer is good for any of the UFC Vegas 59 fights. Simply place your wager. If you win, you are paid out as normal. If you lose, you will be credited with free bets in the same amount!
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Quick Look Back
Last week’s UFC 277 event was a successful one for us no matter which way you slice it. That said, our profit did not come perfectly due to mid week tinkering on my part on our recommended bets. Before we get to the results of our five bets that saw all five fighters win, I have to lament that my last bet removed from the sheet was Nic Negumereanu, who won in impressive fashion.
We had five bets for UFC 277, and all five fighters won their fights. Our bets went 3-2 due to a pair of ITD plays not going our way. That was not due to a lack of explosion and dominance on those two fighters. Our two losing ITD plays had a combined four knockdowns for those two fighters.
Our first play of the night was on the first fight. We had Orion Cosce over Blood Diamond. Cosce won a comfortable decision in what was, as expected, not the most exciting fight of the night. Next up we had Hamdy Abdelwahab ITD +230 over DonTale Mayes. Hamdy dropped and rocked Mayes in the first round, but could not quite get him out of there. Hamdy won a comfortable decision and in hindsight, perhaps +145 on the flat line was the better value. Next up we had Drew Dober +140 ITD against Rafael Alves. Dober weathered the early storm exactly as expected, and started to put it on the body of Alves in the second round. In the third round, Dober landed the fight ending body shot that completely shut off the body of Alves to cash the ITD ticket.
On the pay per view portion of the card we had plays on both title fights. We had Brandon Moreno -210 who was the best value on the card. He, like Dober, shut down Kai Kara-France with a body shot in the third round, guaranteeing a profitable night. Our last play was one I tinkered with mid week. I shifted from Amanda Nunes flat at -285 to Amanda Nunes ITD -125. Amanda absolutely owned the fight front to back, scoring three credited knockdowns and at least two more that were questionable but not credited. It was a mauling, albeit a mauling that went to a decision.
We will keep the profit rolling this week on the UFC Vegas 59 card.
UFC Vegas 59 Fight Card
UFC Vegas 59 is slightly on the higher end of Fight Night cards. It brings a slug fest in both the main event and co-main event. It brings us the dual Ultimate Fighter 30 (TUF) finale as well as the TUF 29 winner Bryan Battle in action. We also have some prospects looking to further raise their stock in action.
Main Event
The main event is between a pair of heavy handed strikers in the light heavyweight division. Jamahal Hill sits as a -285 favorite over Thiago Santos. Expect a finish here as this fight is -450 to end inside the distance. We will have a bet on this fire fight so much more on this one in a bit.
Co-Main Event
The co-main event projects to be another slug fest, this one at welterweight. The always exciting and all action Vicente Luque sits as a -180 favorite over Geoff Neal.
Vicente Luque is always all action and has had many wildly entertaining wars over the years. He takes damage to dish it out and is always must see when it comes to entertaining fighters. Luque also has some of the best front chokes we will ever see in the UFC, so never count him out on wrapping up an anaconda or a D’Arce.
Geoff Neal notched a win in his most recent fight, and it was needed. The powerful striker had dropped two straight and won a narrow decision against Santiago Ponzinibbio. Neal has not looked overly sharp in his last trio of fights. He still has sting in his hands and has very good takedown defense, so that tells us we will likely see 15 minutes or less of stand up. Luque would be the fighter seeking takedowns in this fight and he likely will not succeed getting the fight down.
These fighters will be stinging each other, with Luque bringing the volume edge while Neal will have the power edge. Both fighters are quite durable, so we are going to see some fun standing and banging. I lean towards Luque in the fight but not confident enough to lay the -180.
The Ultimate Fighter 30 Finales
UFC Vegas 59 will have the finales of TUF 30. In the men’s heavyweight division, Zac Pauga is a -245 favorite over Mohammed Usman. In the women’s flyweight division, Julianna Miller is a -125 favorite over Brogan Walker.
Note that no matter who wins these fighters, it is essentially assured that all four of these fighters will receive UFC contracts, along with a handful of others from the season’s cast.
In the men’s heavyweight division, I believe this is a good fight for Zac Pauga. He is the more explosive and advanced striker. He is also the better grappler, but I do not believe we see this fight hit the mat much. Usman is underwhelming, and could have lost either of his TUF fights with different judges. He is tough however, and seems to improve as fights go on, so I will be sitting this one out.
In the women’s flyweight division, we have a fun fight with a previously unknown fighter in Julianna Miller and a known commodity in Brogan Walker. Walker is certainly better than some of the girls signed in the promotion already.
Miller is unrefined as a striker, but has a funky grappling style that has worked well for her against more experienced fighters thus far. Walker is a BJJ black belt so it will be interesting to see how well that works for her in this fight.
This is another fight that is too close to bet on, but if you feel the need for action, it should be on the slight underdog side of Walker in a dog or pass spot.
UFC Vegas 59 Bet Sheet
With only 12 fights on the card and some huge betting lines, are betting options were limited from the start. Two of the twelve fights have fighters at -580 or more. An additional six fights have lines of -220 or more.
Even with these limitations, we will have a bet on a quarter of the fights. Two of those bets will be on significant favorites to win inside the distance, and another on a significant underdog. Let’s dive in!
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting picks and analyses.
Jamahal Hill vs Thiago Santos
Serghei Spivac vs Augusto Sakai
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Sam Alvey
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Other UFC Vegas 59 Predictions
Vicente Luque via decision over Geoff Neal
Zac Pauga via KO over Muhammed Usman
Brogan Walker via decision over Julianna Miller
Priscilla Cachoeira via KO over Ariane Lipski
Terrance McKinney via KO over Erick Gonzalez
Takashi Sato via KO over Bryan Battle
Josh Quinlan via KO over Jason Witt
Cory McKenna via decision over Miranda Granger
Stephanie Egger via KO over Mayra Bueno Silva