UFC Vegas 57 is a Fight Night card that takes place on Saturday June 25th, 2022. The event will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The 12 fight card will have the first fighters make the walk to the octagon at 7PM EST. While the card does not have big star power, it is not one to miss. There true up and coming fighters scattered throughout the card, including in headlining spots in the main event and co-main event.
With the return to the Apex, I like to give a reminder that the octagon used in that building is smaller than the normal octagon. The smaller octagon in the Apex tends to favor wrestlers, grapplers and fighters who otherwise want to constantly engage due there being less space.
UFC Vegas 57 Promo Code
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Quick Look Back
We had another profitable night on the UFC Austin card. Entering the card, we started with five betting picks. We had one of those once again fall through when the Cowboy Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon fight had to be cancelled yet again. I do hope they rebook it again but this fight is starting to have the feel of one that is doomed.
That left us with four betting plays. We started the night with a loss on an ITD shot on Gloria de Paula at +320. De Paula fought a terrible fight and did not wear down Oliveira in the way I expected. She actually lost the decision but I had her winning on my card. In any event, the finish we needed did not come.
Next up was Damir Ismagulov flat again Guram Kutateladze. Kutateladze showed he is ready to fight at the higher levels, as he made this fight much closer than I anticipated. Ismagulov did notch the decision win, keeping us even through two fights on the night.
Next up was Kevin Holland, who had a ridiculously friendly +175 ITD line. He was superior to Tim Means in every way. Holland hurt Means in the second round and jumped on a D’Arce to end the fight, securing profit on the night.
Last was Josh Emmett in the main event. I got greedy on him and also didn’t trust his volume over five rounds against a high volume striker like Kattar. Instead of the +200 flat line, we opted for the +400 ITD line. Emmett’s power did win the fight, but it did not come via finish. Emmett took a decision, winning the fight, but not booking a winner on our aggressive bet.
UFC Vegas 57 Fight Card
As I mentioned in the intro, the card is well made, but does not bring familiarity of star names. The main event is going to be awesome, and I will break that down in a bit. The co-main event features a potential future champ. There is also another fighter on the card that qualifies as a very real potential future champ. Umar Nurmagomedov is a rightful -1000 favorite.
UFC Vegas 57 Main Event
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot will be the main event in the lightweight division. This is such a fantastic matchup between two fighters being thrust into their first respective main events. Gamrot at 32 years of age is in a now or never spot to ascend to the top of the division. Tsarukyan on the other hand is just 26 and will be a main stay at the top of the division for years to come. Tsarukyan is a -275 favorite in this spot.
Starting with Gamrot, he has steam rolled his way through his last three fights. He has had three straight extremely impressive finishes of Scott Holtzman, Jeremy Stephens and Diego Ferreira. It can be argued all these fighters are on the down side and not at peak, but he was impressive nonetheless. Tsarukyan is on a five fight win streak himself. He put an absolute clinic on Joel Alvarez in his most recent fight. It also should be noted Tsarukyan gave Islam Makhchev his toughest fight in the UFC by a wide margin.
Gamrot is extremely well rounded. Gamrot has power in the his striking. He relies on that power to be the difference maker in the stand up. His volume is just middling and I would not call him the cleanest striker around. On the other side, Tsarukyan does not have quite the same power as Gamrot, but that is not to say he does not have power. He is the cleaner striker and may have the slightest of volume edges in the stand up.
This Fight has Everything
What will be more important than the striking in this fight will be the wrestling and grappling. Both fighters are high end wrestlers and know how to secure takedowns in MMA. Both fighters are also quite sound in the grappling realm as well. The edge in this fight will go to whoever can get the proper entries and get the fight to the mat. I would give Tsarukyan the small edge as a wrestler, and I’d expect him to be more efficient with his shots.
While the grappling edge is going to whichever fighter is securing the takedowns and top control, I like the top game of Tsarukyan better. It cannot be understated the absolute master class he put on BJJ black belt Alvarez in his last fight. I suppose the same holds true for Gamrot against Ferreira, but that had as much to do wit striking as it dd grappling.
I do favor Tsarukayn in this fight, but think the line is too wide. It is best to sit back and watch a very fun main event and see which fighter throws his name in the hat as a title challenger.
Co-Main Event
Much like the main event, we could see a true title challenger emerge from the co-main event. Spoiler: that fighter will not be Neil Magny. Shavkat Rhakmonov is a -405 favorite over Magny. With Magny’s track record, those who don’t know Rakhmonov might raise an eyebrow at that betting line. Do not be fooled, if anything it is not wide enough.
Shavkat Rakhmonov could truly be the next big thing at welterweight. The 27 year old has three finishes in a combined 12 minutes in his first three UFC fights. He has submitted a pair of BJJ black belts and additionally secured a knock out. Rakhmonov can do it all and I believe he will have an edge wherever this fight goes. Additionally, Magny does not bring the one shot power to shut the lights off, so there is very little chance a one off scenario brings a shocking end to this fight.
Magny is fresh off a win over Max Griffin, but not necessarily one to be proud of. If I’m honest, he looked quite beatable and was fortunate to escape with a split decision win. We have also seen Magny submitted multiple times and knocked out in the octagon, so it is not as if he is immune to being finished.
Rakhmonov will be the far more dangerous fighter in the stand up. It would be surprising if we saw a large amount of striking volume in this fight. More likely is we see clinch work into takedowns as both sides like to do. I believe Rakhmonov will be the more effective in all areas there. I think we see another win from Rakhmonov but I’m unsure if he can make it look as pretty as he has against Magny. In any event we will see Rakhmonov win, but I am not prepared to lay over 4:1 on that outcome.
Remainder Of UFC Vegas 57 Fight Card
The rest of the card is fun and brings quality fights. We will see Umar Nurmagomedov take another step forward towards truly meaningful fights. The clash of styles between Rodolfo Vieira and Chris Curtis is a fascinating one. Without spoilers, a couple fights we have bets on will be fun. Additionally, I think Brian Kelleher vs Mario Bautista could bring a performance bonus from either side, or potentially fight of the night.
UFC Vegas 57 Bet Sheet
We will have three betting picks for UFC Vegas 57. We will have a moderate favorite that should be priced significantly higher. Our other two betting plays are in closely lined fights and both come with a plus figure. One is on the flat line and the other is ITD. (Update, I opted for the flat line instead of ITD on that particular fighter). Let’s get to them.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting picks and analyses.
Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos
Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi
JP Buys vs Cody Durden
Other UFC Vegas 57 Fight Predictions
Arman Tsarukyan via decision over Mateusz Gamrot
Shavkat Rakhmonov via submission over Neil Magny
Alan Baudot via KO over Josh Parisian
Umar Nurmagimedov via submission over Nate Maness
Rodolfo Vieira via submission over Chris Curtis
TJ Brown via decision over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Sergey Morozov via decision over Raulian Paiva
Brian Kelleher via submission over Mario Bautista
Vanessa Demopoulos via decision over Jinh Yu Frey
