UFC Vegas 54 is a Fight Night card once again taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. As far as Fight Nights go, it is a quality card, particularly in the women’s strawweight and flyweight divisions. The card brings a later start than normal, starting at 730 PM EST on Saturday May 14th, 2022. The down side to the card is a lack of fight volume, as there are only 11 fights scheduled. That lack of volume is offset by truly interesting fights from the first to the main event.
With the return to the Apex, it bears repeating the reminder that the octagon in that building is smaller than the normal octagon. The smaller octagon in the Apex tends to favor wrestlers, grapplers and fighters who otherwise want to constantly engage due there being less space.
UFC Vegas 54 Promo Code
Caesar’s sportsbook has the best offer for the UFC Vegas 54 Fight Card. They are offering first bet insurance on any fight that is good for any amount, up to $1100. This means that even if your first bet loses, you will be credited with the same amount for a free bet. Considering we have two great underdogs to play on this card, this offer is perfect to try to get a plus figure on a big first bet!
Caesars Sportsbook
Quick Look Back
Once a year or so, there is a card that is an unmitigated disaster for me. That card this year was UFC 274. UFC 274 went wrong before the card even started. During the week when narrowing my bets, the last ones eliminated from official betting status were Journey Newson, Andre Fialho ITD, Brandon Royval ITD and Michael Chandler ITD. Of course those were all winners. The bets that remained, those were not.
Once fight day rolled around, one of the five fights we had a wager on was cancelled when Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone fell ill. That brought us down to four wagers. The first was Blagoy Ivanov, who I opted to get aggressive on and played ITD (inside the distance) instead of flat. I believed he would recognize the massive advantage he had on the floor, but he did not. He won a striking heavy decision, but it did us no good.
Next up was Norma Dumont, who I gave credit to for being a high IQ fighter. Well, she proved me terribly wrong in a dud of a performance both mentally and physically in an ugly loss where she did little. Our next bet was our truly bad luck portion of the card in Khaos Williams flat. His power won the day by my view, scoring knock downs in both the first and third rounds. That was not enough for two of the incompetent judges however, and he lost a split decision.
Main Event Madness
Lastly, we had Justin Gaethje in the main event. I was sure he was going to crack do Bronx as he had been cracked in each of his last two fights. I was sure Gaethje would not let him off the hook when he did. Painfully, I was also sure Gaethje was not going to botch a scramble as I have never seen him do so. I was correct on Gaethje cracking do Bronx. Gaethje knocked him down twice in the first round, but opted to avoid ground and pound and a potential finish for hear of being submitted… which did not work out. Gaethje was ultimately knocked down himself. He then gave his back in a scramble and was submitted. Apologies for the dud, we will be back on track this week.
UFC Vegas 54 Fight Card
As mentioned in the intro, I like this card and think it has quality fights throughout. There are three women’s fights on the card placed much lower than I believe they should be, and those are some of the fights I will have my eye on. Those fights also account for two of our wagers.
Main Event
The main event brings us a light heavyweight bout featuring fighters at the top of the division. Former champion Jan Blachowicz is actually an underdog to Aleksander Rakic. Rakic sits as a -190 favorite.
The younger Rakic is certainly the more mobile, quicker and athletic of the two fighters at this juncture. Rakic will look to keep the fight standing, and start it out with using his powerful leg kicks to slow the movement of Blachowicz. Rakic is not overly defensively responsible in the striking, but he has not yet been made to pay for it in the UFC. If we are honest, Rakic has not been overly exciting since he started receiving more quality opponents. He is 2-1 in his last three fights against Volkan Oezdemir, Anthony Smith and Marreta Santos. None of those fights turned out to be head turners by any means, and I believe we get more of the same on Saturday.
Blachowicz will be the slower fighter in the striking, and it will not work out for him in the standup early in the fight. He will be the better conditioned fighter should the fight get to deep water, and that is more likely than not by my view. Blachowicz is not the better wrestler, but he does have the superior BJJ skill set. A smart game plan for him would be selling out for takedowns early in the fight. Landing even one takedown could steal a round and slow the more athletic Rakic thereafter.
In totality, for fighters ranked as highly as these two are, the fight is somewhat underwhelming. Rakic is the rightfully favored fighter, and the -190 line is quite a fair one. I do not see value on either side, so this is a good main event to sit out of from a betting perspective.
Co-Main Event
The co-main event is also in the light heavyweight division. It features the explosive Ion Cutelaba taking on Ryan Spann. Cutelaba sits a rightful -215 favorite as Ryan Spann has fallen short of expectation when matched with higher quality opponents.
We will have a wager on this fight, so much more on this one later.
Remainder Of Fight Card
I’ll mention again the solid matchups between the ladies this week. I know you may have a sour taste in your mouth after watching Carla Esparza and Rose Namajunas flop in their title fight last week. These fights are not the same and will be much more fun stylistic clashes.
The first of those fights sees Virna Jandiroba and Angela Hill meet in a true clash of styles at strawweight. The next two are both at flyweight. We are going to get all action with Angela Lee taking on Viviane Aruajo in a very tight matchup. Lastly, we get to see Amanda Ribas face a new test in long time but plateaued contender Katlyn Chookagian.
We also get three debutants, all having extremely realistic if not probable chances of winning their respective fights.
UFC Vegas 54 Bet Sheet
Despite a shortage of fights and six of eleven fights being lined at -190 or higher, we will have a decent amount of action. We will have three bets, starting with the first ladies fight of the night and concluding in the co-main event. We have two underdogs mixed in for some plus figure return as well.
Click the links below for a full breakdown with recommended betting picks and analyses.
Ion Cutelaba vs Ryan Spann
Katlyn Chookagian vs Amanda Ribas
Virna Jandiroba vs Angela Hill
Other Fight Predictions
Nick Maximov via decision over Andre Petroski
Tatsuro Taira via decision over Carlos Candelario
Alan Patrick via late submission over Michael Johnson
Angela Lee via split decision over Viviane Aruajo
Allan Nascimento via submission over Jake Hadley
Frank Camacho via KO over Manuel Torres
Davey Grant via KO over Luis Smolka
Aleksander Rakic via decision over Jan Blachowicz
