This was probably a good week for the UFC to release some big news. There is a fight card on Saturday night at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, but it is probably the weakest card that we’ve seen since the return of the top MMA promotion in the world. Certain matches have intrigue and there are good betting opportunities, but the card lacks star power to say the least.
That is why this was an optimal time to release some of the matches scheduled for UFC 251 and also to promote Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier 3 at UFC 252. Three title fights are on the UFC 251 card at “Fight Island”, which is actually Yas Island in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns for the welterweight championship, Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway for the featherweight championship, and Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo for the bantamweight championship are the three headliners, but the entire card looks awesome.
Then we’ve got Stipe vs. DC for the third time and for all the bragging rights in the heavyweight division. Many consider this to be the best heavyweight fight of all-time in the UFC. That will come August 15 in Las Vegas.
In the meantime, there are other cards, including this UFC on ESPN+ 30 card with a main event of Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo. On paper, this looks like a good match, given that DraftKings Sportsbook has it lined -110 both ways. Four of Calvillo’s last five fights have gone the maximum 15 minutes and eight of Eye’s last nine have gone the distance.
As the main event, this fight will employ the championship rounds, so the total here is actually 4.5, so this will be all about endurance. Given that Calvillo has had some major issues with making weight in the past, we have to be concerned about her physical state if she has to go 25 minutes. That should benefit Eye, who has had a career resurgence with wins in four of her last five fights. Her only loss came with Valentina Shevchenko nearly kicked her head off of her neck.
One of the reasons why this card is lacking is that the main event is likely to be boring. Neither fighter has a ton of striking power, so it could be a 25-minute decision that winds up being too close to definitively call.
In other words, better betting options are available in the other fights, like Marvin Vettori vs. Karl Roberson. Vettori is now a -225 favorite after Roberson had issues with the weight cut for their scheduled scrap on May 13. Vettori’s UFC losses have been to Israel Adesanya and Antonio Carlos Junior and there is no shame in either of those, particularly with the ability to take Adesanya 15 minutes and lose in split-decision fashion.
Roberson is +175 on the underdog side and had major health concerns with the weight cut for the first fight, including a bout of rhabdomyolysis. Roberson is a fine fighter, but Vettori is better in all facts, has more upside, and the health of Roberson has to be a concern going into this fight just a month after his failed weight cut.
Roberson has never been knocked out, so you could cut into the juice a little bit with Vettori by decision once those props are released.
One of the more interesting fights on the card features Charles Jourdain at +180 against Andre Fili at -230. Fili is definitely the more experienced fighter with the higher fight IQ, but the 24-year-old Jourdain has proven to be a finisher in his career already. All 10 of his wins are by stoppage. Fili’s knockout of Sheymon Moraes last July was his first finish victory in nearly four years.
If Fili can dictate the pace and distance of the fight, he will win at the chalky price. If Jourdain, who is the smaller fighter, can get inside and get some strikes in, then this one becomes iffy for Fili. The problem for Jourdain is that he hasn’t really seen anybody with a takedown game like Fili’s. This will be a good test of the young fighter’s takedown defense and one that could shed some light on future matchups.
The best fight of the prelim card should be Charles Rosa against Kevin Aguilar. Aguilar is the -177 favorite with some money line action shaded to his side, as Rosa is just +140 on the takeback. Both Aguilar and Rosa have had some disappointing outcomes recently. Aguilar has proven to be something of a one-trick pony on the striking side, whereas Rosa has won in multiple ways and has a lot of ways of attacking his opponents. The Aguilar price might be a tad high here, but this looks like a great fight with the contrasting styles.
If you are scared about laying some chalk with the Vettori price, a good money line parlay complement is Mariya Agapova for her fight against Hannah Cifers. Cifers just fought two weeks ago and lost to Mackenzie Dern by first-round submission. She took a little bit of punishment prior to tapping out as well.
Agapova is -230 in her UFC debut, but she has seven inches on the shorter Cifers. Agapova is stepping up in class in the sense that she’s fighting a UFC-caliber fighter, but one on a quick turnaround that has not shown a lot of UFC-caliber striking power. A little Agapova/Vettori parlay pays back +107 and that is a good way to approach this card.
The UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo card will be on ESPN and ESPN+ and will take place on Saturday June 13.