UFC fight cards are always better with title fights. We’ve got two of them at UFC 263 and both are rematches, though only one was a fight for the strap. Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno fought to a draw at UFC 256 and they will give it another go to see if a winner will be determined in the rematch on Saturday night.
That isn’t the main event, though. The main matchup features Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori in a rematch of Adesanya’s split-decision win back on April 24, 2018. Since then, Adesanya has won the UFC Middleweight Championship and has not lost at that weight class. Vettori has won five a row.
That makes for a fine night of fighting from Glendale, Arizona on Saturday June 12.
You’ll have a fine night if you can pick the winner of the main event and take advantage of one of the two big sportsbook promotions this week.
All you have to do with either promotion is pick the winner between Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori. At DraftKings, you’re getting either fighter at 100/1. At FanDuel, you’re getting either fighter at 30/1.
Just to throw out some love for another sportsbook here in our fight preview, we’ll look at the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook, where a Risk-Free Bet up to $600 is available if you sign up for an account. You don’t even have to make your first bet on UFC 263, but the option is there.
Let’s look at some of the fights, with previews of both title fights and then some best bets.
UFC Betting Odds – Adesanya (-275) vs. Vettori (+210)
Israel Adesanya is coming off of his first career loss, but he has never lost as a middleweight. Adesanya tried to become a dual champion, but came up short in March against Jan Blachowicz in the fight for the Light Heavyweight Championship. It was a humbling experience for Adesanya, who had problems with the bigger, stronger Blachowicz.
His fight IQ and his athleticism were trumped by the power of Blachowicz. That is something that Adesanya doesn’t have to worry about here against Marvin Vettori. Where Blachowicz had 20 pounds on Adesanya and about as much length, Vettori will fall under the 185-pound weight class and stands four inches shorter than Adesanya.
This fight does have a contrast of styles. Adesanya has 15 knockouts. He wants to strike. He wants to brawl. But, he wants to do so tactically. Vettori has nine career submission wins and only two knockouts. The 27-year-old Italian wants the fight on the ground. He does have some difficulty finishing opponents when he gets there, but he often impresses the judges enough to win by unanimous decision.
Adesanya’s takedown defense was exposed a bit by Blachowicz, but there was also a power disadvantage and Blachowicz had about as much length. Vettori has neither of those things.
Adesanya might seem like a big favorite for a rematch of a split decision from just over three years ago, but the -275 price is warranted here. Adesanya is +145 by decision at BetMGM Sportsbook. That seems like the most likely outcome here, as Vettori has never lost by stoppage.
Pick: Adesanya by Decision (+145)
UFC 263 Preview – Figueiredo (-225) vs. Moreno (+175)
The odds for this rematch between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno are likely to catch some attention. The two fought to a draw at UFC 255, but Figueiredo is still more than a $2 favorite. It’s important to keep in mind that Figueiredo was -300 for the first fight, so there has been an adjustment based on what happened.
The first fight was fascinating. Figueiredo set the UFC record for fastest turnaround between main event title fights. Moreno was also in action on the UFC 255 card, but against Brandon Royval. He won by first-round KO. Figueiredo also won in the first round over Alex Perez. That set up the huge main event title fight.
It was an excellent fight and very much a draw, as the stats wound up very similar for the two fighters. Figueiredo had some dehydration the day before the fight and was actually in the hospital for some liquids. Going 25 minutes the next night was thoroughly impressive.
Figueiredo is now at what appears to be a cheap enough price to bet. He’s more accomplished in the division and the longer fight camp should help him more. Moreno’s age was a helpful factor in the first fight, but it’s hard to call it one now.
Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo (-225)
UFC 263 Best Bets
As we hop around the rest of the card, let’s look at some UFC best bets:
Movsar Evloev (-250) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (+195)
Hakeem Dawodu has an impressive record, but he’s been on the verge of losing some of his recent fights with some split-decision victories. There has been no question about the winner in Movsar Evloev’s fights. The undefeated Evloev is a decision machine and he can control the fights in a lot of ways, whereas Dawodu just wants to fight and brawl. Evloev’s going to win this fight. You can take him by decision to cut down on the juice if you want.
Drew Dober (-145) vs. Brad Riddell (+120)
This is a bad matchup stylistically for Brad Riddell. Riddell is a striker and a successful one at that, but the guys that have beaten Drew Dober are capable of getting the fight to the canvas. Dober has big striking power and each of his last three wins has been a knockout. His recent losses have been by submission.
Riddell has not had a win by KO or any kind of stoppage in the UFC yet. Dober’s weakness is takedown defense, but his opponent cannot exploit it.