Tony Gravely vs Salmon Oliveira Fight Odds
Tony Gravely -250 vs Salmon Oliveira
Fight is at 135 lbs and is -110 to end inside the distance.
Newcomer Salmon Oliveira makes his promotional debut in UFC 270 against high end wrestler Tony Gravely. Oliveira found success on the regional scene, predominantly with front chokes. Oliveira has something of a rounded skill set. He will be able to keep the stand up close enough, but will be undone by the wrestling of Gravely. The front choke game that worked so well for Oliveira at the lower levels will not qualify as takedown defense against this level of wrestler. Gravely will have seen the guillotines coming thousands of times in training and will be able to easily take the fight down while keeping his neck safe.
Gravely had a truly crazy outcome in his last fight. He hurt and totally rocked Nate Maness near the end of Round 1. The fight truly should have been stopped, but was allowed to go on to a second round. Maness found an improbable rally and was able to then secure a KO of his own, and it was truly unfortunate for Gravely. Gravely does not have to worry about real power coming back at him in this matchup. His chin will not be in much danger and will be able to mix it up, but ultimately win the fight on the floor. There will be multiple takedowns, there will be control time, and there may even be a submission for Gravely. In any event, the level up of opponent is much more than Oliveira can be prepared for.
What To Bet
The -250 line might feel a bit steep, but I feel it should be significantly wider. I believe the only real path to victory for Oliveira is via a Gravely wrestling mistake, which we will not often see. Essentially Oliveira needs Gravely to stick his neck in the wrong spot, and that is highly unlikely. Take the -250 favorite to roll on the flat line.