Serghei Spivac vs Augusto Sakai Fight Odds
Serghei Spivac -255 vs Augusto Sakai
Fight is at heavyweight and is -225 to end inside the distance.
This heavyweight fight is between two fighters that have become mainstays in the division. Albeit ones that have essentially proven they lack a true ceiling. Starting with Serghei Spivac, I am frankly quite puzzled as to why he is such a large favorite in this matchup. Spivac does have roundedness to his game and does well to press the advantages he has against given opponents. That said, I do not see him having any glaring advantage in this matchup.
He is not a heavy handed striker in the stand up. He has never even scored a knockdown in eight heavyweight UFC fights. Where Spivac tends to do best is with takedowns against less refined opponents, turned to ground and pound. While he may well do well with control and ground and pound if he gets this fight to the mat. However, that is quite a large “if” against a larger and stronger opponent with sound takedown defense.
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Augusto Sakai finally sees a drop in competition after fighting some much bigger names in his last three fights. He started his UFC tenure with five straight wins, one of which being a sub one minute KO against common opponent Marcin Tybura. That is notable because Tybura out grappled Spivac in their matchup.
Sakai’s jump in competition saw him fight a fun main event against Alistair Overeem, who beat him in deeper waters and finished him on the mat in the fifth round. He was then matched with extremely heavy handed Jair Rozenstruick and Tai Tuivasa. Those fighters knocked him out in the first half of each of their respective fights. Sakai now draws a fight where he does not have to worry about the huge power coming his way, where he has thrived in the past. Sakai will be the better striker and will have edges in technique, volume and power. We also will see stuffed takedowns end in the clinch, which will be very advantageous for Sakai.
What To Bet
This fight is all about Sakai stuffing takedowns. If he is able to do so at a 100% rate, which is quite possible, I think we see the underdog notch a runaway win, and perhaps even a finish. Should Sakai stuff most takedowns, I think he has a comfortable win and returns to his feet once or twice without issue. If his takedown defense fails completely, then it will be a fight for Spivac. In any event, the massive value is on the Sakai side at +220 who has the better path to victory in the stand up and in the clinch. Take Sakai in what appears to be a very mislined fight.