Rodolfo Viera vs Wellington Turman Fight Odds
Rodolfo Viera -230 vs Wellington Turman
Fight is at 205 lbs and is -250 to end inside the distance.
I will preface this fight breakdown with a disclaimer. Until Rodolfo Viera levels up to opponents that are truly able to dictate where the fight takes place, I will be firing ITD bets on him in every fight. That avenue of attack has been successful since Viera reached the UFC in 2019. We have booked three wins and one loss going into UFC 270.
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Viera is as high level a BJJ player that we will see in the octagon. He is quite large and strong for the weight class. He knows how to get the fight to the floor, and is an absolute monster once there. Even fighting another BJJ black belt like Wellington Turman, the levels between the skill sets of the two are massive. Viera is simply on a level no one else in the weight class is when it comes to grappling games.
Now, it is nearly prudent to dismiss the opponent Viera is fighting when analyzing him. He has one massive red flag that is a detriment. His gas tank fails him and he reaches the point of total exhaustion. The aforementioned size and the amount of weight he has to cut is certainly a contributing factor. Viera will generally begin to slow in the the second round and reach the point of total exhaustion in the third round. That is exactly what happened in his one loss to Anthony Hernandez. Viera could essentially no longer defend himself due to exhaustion and was actually submitted. He was certainly not out grappled, just fully gassed.
This is the exact reason we are throwing ITD bets at Viera in all of his fights. He is quite likely to go out and grab a neck early in the fight. While Viera’s energy bar is full, there are no specialists that can truly neutralize his grappling game. When he fades, he can become a sitting duck himself.
In this matchup, he draws a grappler in Turman who is not an overwhelming striker by any means. He has also seen his chin give out in two of his last three fights, and will be giving up a power edge to Viera. Viera may be the better overall striker, and damage done in the stand up is not out of the question. The only real game plan for Turman is to survive and hope to wait out the gas tank of Viera, but I do not see that coming to fruition. Viera will get the fight to the mat and earn a fourth finish in five tries in the UFC.