Vettori vs Costa UFC Vegas 41 Odds
Marvin Vettori -175 vs Paolo Costa
Fight is five rounds at a catchweight of 195 lbs and is -150 to end inside the distance.
Marvin Vettori vs Paolo Costa Betting Preview
The drama of not being to make the weight cut is a bad look for Paolo Costa, but I believe it plays to his advantage in this fight. We know that Costa is simply a massive middleweight that has to cut an extreme amount of weight. He can become depleted from that cut, and the catchweight of 195 lbs should be great for both his stamina and power. Costa fights best when he acts like a terminator, continuously coming forward and landing heavy. Less of a weight cut will only help with his power. He certainly has the power edge in this fight. He may or may not land more volume, but will certainly land the most significant strikes. Costa will have something of an easy fight if he is able to keep Marvin Vettori from getting his wrestling game going. While Costa is a BJJ black belt and someone that can return to his feet f taken down, it will be much better for him if he does not have to exert the energy to do so.
Marvin Vettori will absolutely need to wrestle and get Costa down multiple times if he is to win this fight. The power disadvantage in the stand up will be quite apparent. A fight that resembles a kickboxing match would not be good for Vettori, as it is difficult to envision him surviving even three rounds, let alone five rounds of that punishment. Wrestling and draining the gas tank of Costa is his path to victory. It will lead to either a late finish or the nod on the scorecards. That said, I don’t believe agreeing to a catchweight was a strategically sound move for Vettori. He is essentially letting his opponent mitigate what could be their biggest weakness: the gas tank. Ultimately I believe this brings Vettori less success than he may have otherwise had in the wrestling and he will have to face even more pop in the Costa strikes.
While Vettori does have a path to victory in grinding out a win, Costa has perhaps an even more likely path. The catchweight news actually saw Vettori get steamed on the betting line and I think that action should have gone the other way. While a Costa decision win is highly unlikely, a Costa KO is much more likely. With a straightforward path to victory and one that does not requite a flash KO, the +225 ITD line on Costa is extremely attractive. I don’t blame you if you opt for the safety of the +155 flat line as it does take some value away from the ITD line, but a Costa decision win rather than a finish would be wholly surprising.
Pick: Costa ITD +225
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