Marlon Vera vs Dominick Cruz Fight Odds
Marlon Vera -225 vs Dominick Cruz
Fight is five rounds at 135 lbs and is +130 to end inside the distance.
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Marlon “Chito” Vera enters his second main event against long time bantamweight elite Dominick Cruz. Vera truly showed out in his first main event, notching a wildly entertaining five round decision call against Rob Font. In a fight that was constant action, Vera’s power was the differentiating factor in the fight. He notched three knockdowns in that fight, but he was out struck on volume. Font notched a 271-159 advantage on the significant strikes. This fight sets up similarly for Vera, but more difficult. While he will once again have a power edge, he will have similar disadvantages as well.
Vera will need to land those power shots against the veteran in Cruz. Cruz has never had real durability issues so it will require something quite special out of Vera to win via KO. Landing a significant shot and scoring a knockdown in a round or two will likely not be enough to take this fight. Vera will have to figure out the unique approach of Cruz, which I believe is a very difficult ask.
Dominick Cruz is a former champ and long time staple at the very top of the bantamweight division. After nearly four years off, he returned in 2020 for a title shot against Henry Cejudo. Cejudo got an extremely questionable stoppage with two seconds left in the second round, but I can say he was winning that fight. The fight very much should have continued, but it was an uphill climb for Cruz. Since then he has notched easy to score decision wins over Casey Kenney and Pedro Munhoz. There was a rogue scorecard in the Kenney fight, but it was an easy enough victory for Cruz. Now he steps back into main event territory where he has gone a full five rounds seven times. Cruz is 6-1 in those fights and will look to improve on that impressive mark.
Cruz will employ his normal game plan. He will use absolutely elite footwork and movement to win the volume war. He always looks to be not home when his opponents pull the trigger, and touch them when they are not ready. Vera is not a fighter that has had a long track record of being able to land in volume nor one that has escaped being hit. What I believe is certain in this fight is Cruz leaving winning the volume battle. Win or lose, we will see more significant strikes landed on the Cruz side. It will be up to Vera to track down Cruz and make his power sway the judges, or less likely, find a KO.
How The Fight Plays Out and What To Bet
I do not believe we see much, if any grappling in this fight. I would give Cruz the wrestling edge, particularly on the defensive side. If this fight hits the mat, I think it is Cruz taking it there. That avenue would not be prudent as Vera is the better and more dangerous grappler. We legitimately could see 25 minutes of stand up in which Vera attempts to get a read on and track down Cruz.
I am a fan of Chito Vera but I think this fight offers him some real stylistic problems. Vera does have power but has won his last two fights against opponents with real durability issues. I am eager to see how his power translates against Cruz. After three fights since his return, Cruz will be in the top form he can find at his age. I am also eager to see how well he is able to evade Vera and touch without being touched. I suspect it will work out well for him, and with a +185 price tag. Take the significant underdog in this main event.