Katlyn Chookagian vs Amanda Ribas Fight Odds
Katlyn Chookagian -175 vs Amanda Ribas
Fight is at 125 lbs and is +170 to end inside the distance.
Amanda Ribas returns after seven months off to what I believe is her best division, the flyweight division. She has won five of her six UFC fights, but it has become apparent she is cutting too much weight to get to 115. She has expressed desire to fight at both strawweight and flyweight, but I tend to like her more at flyweight. The durability was really becoming a concern at 115.
UFC Vegas 54 Promo Code
Caesar’s sportsbook has the best offer for the Katlyn Chookagian vs Virna Jandiroba. They are offering first bet insurance on any fight that is good for any amount, up to $1100. This means that even if your first bet loses, you will be credited with the same amount for a free bet. We have a superior grappler with a proven track record of getting the fight to the floor in Ribas. Ribas returns +155 and is is perfect to try to get a plus figure on a big first bet!
Caesars Sportsbook
Ribas as an underdog and not just a slight one is somewhat surprising to me. She will be giving up a great deal of height, but she will not be the smaller fighter. She will be at a 6” height disadvantage, but just a 2” reach disadvantage. To counteract the height, she will also be the noticeably stronger fighter with a superior BJJ game.
Anyone questioning the BJJ credential of Ribas had very little to say after she took down Mackenzie Dern and beat her on the floor. Ribas knows how good she is there and has had at least one takedown in all six of her UFC fights. Katlyn Chookagian has defended just 55% of takedowns across 14 UFC fights, so it is not as if she is defending a high amount of takedowns and the sample size is large. It would truly be a shock if Ribas did not get the fight to her world at some point.
Chookagian will come in and do what she always does. Attempt to use length and strike at range and hope the judges see her as the better fighter. She has certainly been gifted questionable decisions in the past, and that is a recipe I loathe, particularly for a favored fighter.
What To Bet
Chookagian will need to keep that range, much like she did in the fight with Cynthia Calvillo. That should be the game plan, but this fight is quite different. Ribas is a better and much more powerful striker than Calvillo. I believe she will be able to earn some respect early on in the striking, but also that she will be able to close the distance. Chookagian is a fighter that can be controlled on the mat and I expect Ribas to do just that, if not finding a submission along the way.
The warranted hype of Ribas died down after the KO loss to Marina Rodriguez. That should work in our favor as Ribas reminds the world how good she is and comes at a nice plus figure.
Betting Pick: Ribas +155
