Joseph Holmes vs Alen Amedovski Fight Odds
Joseph Holmes -195 vs Alen Amedovski
Fight is at 185 lbs and is -260 to end inside the distance.
Joseph Holmes is a fighter that Dana White and company are bringing along slowly, and rightfully so. After a submission win on DWCS, Holmes was forced to win again on Dana White’s Lookin For A Fight. Only then did he get his call up to the big leagues. That debut came against Jamie Pickett, who has truly developed and made strides since entering the UFC. Holmes lost a decision in that fight, and it truly had to be a fantastic learning experience for him, even in a loss. He likely also learned the type of cardio needed for hard UFC fights, and did show real durability in that fight.
UFC Vegas 55 Promo Code
Caesar’s sportsbook has the best offer for the UFC Vegas 55 Fight Card. They are offering first bet insurance on any fight that is good for any amount, up to $1100. This means that even if your first bet loses, you will be credited with the same amount for a free bet. Holmes is set up well for a finish and is a great bet for this promo.
Caesars Sportsbook
Holmes is extremely tall, long and rangy for middleweight. He stands 6’4” tall and has a massive 80” reach. His striking still has some more development to be done, but it sits at an adequate place. The strength of his game is his grappling, and he has been quite good at snatching submissions. He has won via submission in five of his last nine fights.
If I am honest, I did not realize Alen Amedovski was still on the UFC roster. He last fought in 2019, and was starched by John Phillips in just 14 seconds. Amedovski is not completely incapable, but I believe the promotion found what they viewed as the softest possible opponent for this fight. Amedovski does bring a power element early on in fights, but it seems unlikely he is able to secure a knockout against a fighter that has proven himself durable. That holds particularly true when considering Holmes will have quite a large grappling advantage. Even if Amedovski were to knock Holmes down, he would have to go to the floor to finish Holmes, putting him in the realm where Holmes has the greatest advantage in the fight.
How The Fight Plays Out
Ultimately, Holmes will be able to use his range to control the striking in the standup. He will mix in opportunistic takedown attempts to get the fight to the floor. Holmes is live for a knock out but his most obvious path to a finish is via submission. We are getting +105 on Holmes to win inside the distance and that is our plan of attack for this fight.
Betting Pick: Holmes ITD +105
