Miller vs Gonzalez UFC Vegas 40 Odds
Jim Miller -225 vs Erick Gonzalez
Fight is at 155 lbs and is +110 to end inside the distance.
Jim Miller vs Erick Gonzalez Betting Preview
If there were ever a fighter who we can be comfortable saying we know their skill set, it would be that of 38 year old Jim Miller. The future hall of famer will make his 38th walk to the octagon, which is the most for any fighter, ever. Miller brings just adequacy in his stand up, but brings a very high end grappling game. This is bad news for his debuting opponent in this matchup, as the advantage Miller will hold in the grappling realm is quite wide. Miller will be at such a massive advantage in the clinch and on the mat, he will likely find a finish. Miller has a notoriously questionable gas tank however, and the finish will need to come in the first two rounds, or he will be in trouble in the always dicey for him third round.
Erick Gonzalez will desperately want to keep this fight standing. He is taller and longer than Miller, and a more dynamic striker. He will do well in the open and at range. He will have to avoid being backed up to the fence, where he will run into problems. Miller will be able to either take him down against the cage or potentially even take the back in that position. The key for Gonzalez will be avoiding the area that will present real problems for at least a round and a half, and wait for the cardio of Miller to fade. I do believe it unlikely that the debutant is up for the task, and he will have to survive the submission chops of Miller in wholly unfavorable positions.
Erick is not the first Gonzalez breaking into the UFC that Miller has faced. Miller fought Jason Gonzalez in 2019 and won by first round submission. I see such an eerie similarity in this matchup and I feel like an identical outcome is probable. With the Miller ITD line sitting at +220 at Caesar’s, that line presents the most value, the most likely method of victory and it will be our play.
Betting Pick: Miller ITD +220
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