Big favorites are the most common theme of UFC on ESPN 12 on Saturday June 27 at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. Only a few of the 11 fights on the card have what many would consider “competitive” prices, but we’ve seen plenty of upsets in MMA in the past and we could very well see some this week.
In a lot of ways, UFC on ESPN 12 feels like that salad that you get for an appetizer before a nice, juicy steak dinner. There are three title fights at next week’s UFC 251 event on Fight Island, which is actually Yas Island in Abu Dhabi in the UAE. That is the entrée.
Maybe that does a disservice to the card and the fighters, but looking up and down the match list, there aren’t a lot of fights that look great on paper. The main event between Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker is expected to deliver and would be a heavy favorite to win Fight of the Night honors. The winner, which is expected to be Poirier given the odds of -213 at BetMGM Sportsbook, could face Nate Diaz, Conor McGregor, or Khabib Nurmagomedov in the fall.
Poirier’s most recent loss came against Nurmagomedov back at UFC 242. That was just shy of four months from when he won the lightweight belt from Max Holloway at UFC 236. Hooker, meanwhile, was a very controversial winner in his home country of New Zealand back on February 22. Many felt like Paul Felder got robbed when the judges came down with a split decision win for Hooker.
If Hooker wins here, nobody will remember the decision. If he doesn’t, the 30-year-old will have to reshuffle the deck, having ostensibly been beaten in three of his last four. The +175 price on Hooker implies that he has an uphill climb after that performance against Felder and that implication would seem to be correct.
Mike Perry is a -286 favorite for his fight against Mickey Gall that immediately precedes the main event. Perry has dropped three of his last four fights, but Gall’s alleged springboard fight, a win over Sage Northcutt back in 2016, doesn’t look nearly as good now that Northcutt is fighting outside the UFC. Gall is just 2-2 since then. He’s overcome the odds as a big underdog before, certainly higher than +225, but he’s going to have to display a really good chin.
Gall has the size advantage here, but he’s not really a striker. He’s more of a submission artist. Perry has only tapped out once and it was at the hands of Donald Cerrone, one of the sport’s most accomplished combatants. Gall will have to simultaneously keep Perry away from him, while trying to get the fight to the canvas. That seems easier said than done.
What this card lacks in substance, it makes up for with the potential of some up-and-comers. That is true of Brendan Allen and Kyle Daukaus. Daukaus has taken this fight on short notice after Ian Heinisch pulled out due to injury. There are 16 submission finishes between these two fighters. The only fight that Daukaus did not end by sub was his Dana White Contender Series opponent. He had a submission locked in when the final bell rang. He won by unanimous decision.
Allen has more paths to victory, as he has five KO/TKO wins to go along with his eight tapouts. Allen just knocked out Tom Breese back in late February. Both guys look like talented prospects, though this is the UFC debut for Daukaus, who is 27 compared to Allen at 24. Allen is the -278 favorite for having more of a UFC résumé, but Daukaus is dangerous here with both guys looking for the same thing.
It is worth noting that Allen’s losses are to Trevin Giles, Eryk Anders, and Anthony Hernandez, all before they made the UFC.
Additionally, two prospects in the women’s ranks are on the card. Miranda Maverick is -304 for her UFC debut against a very experienced fighter in Mara Romero Borella. The 22-year-old is 9-2 in the UFC, but has six submission finishes. She’ll turn 23 on July 1 and this would be quite a birthday present.
It wouldn’t quite be a birthday present for Kay Hansen, who won’t turn 21 until August 14, but she will bring her talents to the UFC to face Jinh Yu Frey. Both women were fighting in Invicta, but had not crossed paths to this point. Hansen is a much smaller favorite at -143 with just a 6-3 record to her name, but she is considered a pretty highly-touted prospect. This may end up being a learning experience against the 35-year-old Frey, but her upside is much greater.
Undefeated Sean Woodson is also a guy bursting with potential in the featherweight division. He only has three finishes out of his seven wins, but he is a big 6-foot-2 fighter for the division. He is -250 for his fight against Kyle Nelson.
The path may be a little tougher for Ramiz Brahimaj, who is making his UFC debut against Takashi Sato. Sato is -167 with +135 on the come back for the underdog, but Brahimaj is a guy with both of his losses over his last four fights, but he also has eight submission victories. Sato is more of a striker, so this is a good contrast in styles.
26-year-old Luis Pena is more of a household name, but also a guy still bursting with potential. His only UFC losses have been via split decision and his wins have all been impressive showings. He is a big favorite of -278 against Khama Worthy. Just about all of the guys Worthy has lost to have made it to the UFC. He just had his first UFC fight back in August and won. This should be a good one. Pena will likely win, but Worthy won’t make it easy.
In other action, Gian Villante will move up to heavyweight to fight Maurice Greene. Villante was knocked out by Michal Oleksiejczuk last time out and has had some issues making weight in the past, but he won’t have to worry about that fighting as a heavyweight. Greene has four inches and forty pounds on him, hence the -228 line, but Greene is more of a submission guy than a knockout guy. That could help Villante and he is maybe the card’s most attractive underdog at +185.
Jordan Griffin and Youssef Zalal are both -110 in their fight and so, too, are Philipe Lins and Tanner Boser in their heavyweight match.
BetMGM has all sorts of prop betting opportunities to go along with the straight money line prices on this and every UFC card. Be sure to check them out for Saturday night’s action.