Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi Fight Odds
Carlos Ulberg -115 vs Tafon Nchukwi
Fight is at 205 lbs and is -115 to end inside the distance.
Carlos Ulberg and Tafon Nchukwi square off in a near pickem spot, and I see big value on Ulberg at price. Ulberg will be making his fourth UFC walk. That includes a first round KO on DWCS. His UFC debut did not go as planned. The high end kickboxer laid the wood to Kennedy Nzechukwu, but Kennedy brought the chin that day. Ulberg landed 146 significant strikes over just a round and a half, but could not put Nzechukwu out. That insane amount of volume killed the gas tank of Ulberg and he was finished thereafter. In his next fight he was far more measured, earning a dominant decision win.
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Tafon Nchukwi has three wins and two losses under the UFC banner. He is a decently rounded fighter but does not have a differentiating quality about him. We saw his chin give out in a nasty KO in his last fight just three months ago. With that quick a turn around, it is fair to be concerned for his chin against a crisp and powerful striker like Ulberg. Nchukwi will likely not get the clinch fight he prefers, instead being forced to strike at range. That is the worst place for him to be in the matchup with Ulberg. Nchukwi would likely have a grappling edge on the mat, but I do not foresee this fight have much If any grappling.
We will see Ulberg establish himself as the superior striker. The more measured approach in his most recent fight brought him a great result, and that will carry over to this fight. Ulberg also has power and a KO is very much in play. Nchukwi will push forward and try to force action and close the distance, but it will result in him eating the better and heavier strikes. If there is a finish it will be on the Ulberg side, unless Ulberg just fully gasses late in the fight. I would expect any decision to go to Ulberg. While a KO is very much in play for Ulberg and his ITD line is +200, I will opt for the safety of the -115 flat line.