Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa Fight Odds
Aleksei Oleinik -110 vs Jared Vanderaa
Fight is at heavyweight and is -400 to end inside the distance.
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Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa
Jared Vanderaa is something of a bantamweight born in a heavyweight’s body. That is to say he is a fighter that prefers to strike and has big problems when his opponents look to grapple in MMA. Despite being a BJJ black belt, Vanderaa has had serious problems when it comes to keeping opponents from taking him down. He has been able to return to his feet, but in the two UFC fights in which an opponent landed a takedown on him, he was finished on both occasions.
The other problem for Vanderaa in this fight is he lacks real power in the heavyweight division. He strikes as a point fighter and is looking to the judge’s scorecards at this level. It is power and pace that is the deterrent for his opponent in this fight. While Vanderaa does keep a high enough pace, he does not bring the power threat to keep the grappling from being initiated.
New Opponent For Oleinik
Aleksei Oleinik steps in to take this fight after his fight with Ilir Latifi was forced to be cancelled twice. We were going to bet Latifi in that fight, but the new matchup creates a whole new set of circumstances. Latifi is a great wrestler with fire hydrant like takedown defense. Latifi is also a fighter that wings powerful bombs, The opposite holds true for Vanderaa in both areas. This matchup sets up perfectly for Oleinik after facing one that set up terribly.
I suspect Vanderaa’s black belt is what has kept this line as a pickem, but he is not on Oleinik’s level when it comes to submissions. Oleinik will be able to force this fight to the floor and he is in a league of his own at heavyweight once on the floor. There used to be Fabricio Werdum in his tier, but now he sits alone with Werdum out of the UFC.
Oleinik is going to have his way on the floor and will not be threatened to have his lights put out in the stand up. I believe an Oleinik submission is the most likely outcome, but we would only get +135 on the ITD line. With that being the case, Oleinik flat is a great value and a comfortable betting play.
Betting Pick: Oleinik -110
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