Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 4/18/2025

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies and the Washington Nationals are set to clash on April 18, 2025, at Coors Field. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies sitting at 3-15 and the Nationals at 7-12. This game marks the first in their series, and both squads are looking to turn their fortunes around.

In their last outing, the Rockies fell short yet again, continuing a dismal stretch. Chase Dollander is projected to take the mound for Colorado, bringing a 1-1 record and a 5.06 ERA into this matchup. While Dollander ranks as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB, his xFIP of 3.32 suggests he has been unlucky and may improve. However, he is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters on average, which is below average.

On the other side, the Nationals will start MacKenzie Gore, who has a better 3.52 ERA and ranks 74th among MLB starters. Gore's projections look promising, as he is expected to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters, which is good. His high strikeout rate is particularly advantageous against a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in the league in strikeouts.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 27th overall, while the Nationals sit in the middle of the pack at 19th. The Rockies' lack of power is evident, with only 12 home runs this season, ranking 29th in MLB. In contrast, the Nationals have shown more offensive consistency, which could give them the edge in this matchup.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, as the Rockies' moneyline is +115 and the Nationals' is -135. This game presents an opportunity for the Nationals to capitalize on their stronger pitching and more effective offense.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's 94.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.1-mph decline from last year's 95.9-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chase Dollander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Sean Bouchard has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Zac Veen ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+4.80 Units / 32% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 5.17, Colorado Rockies 4.89

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies

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