Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction – 4/26/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on April 26, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Yankees currently sit at 15-11, enjoying a solid season, while the Blue Jays are hovering at 13-13, having just won their last matchup against New York by a score of 4-2. This game marks the second in their series, and while the Yankees are considered strong contenders, the Blue Jays are looking to build on their recent momentum.

Projected to start for the Yankees is Max Fried, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season. With a perfect 4-0 record and an impressive 1.42 ERA, Fried ranks as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. His ability to induce ground balls (50% GB rate) will be tested against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled to find its power, ranking 29th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman takes the mound for the Blue Jays. Gausman has an average 3.16 ERA but has shown vulnerability, allowing 4 earned runs in his last start against the Yankees. His tendency to give up fly balls (45% FB rate) could play into the Yankees’ hands, especially given their 1st ranking in home runs this season.

With the Yankees boasting the 2nd best offense in MLB and their bullpen ranked 14th, they hold a significant advantage in this matchup. The projections suggest that the Yankees will score around 4.89 runs today, while the Blue Jays are expected to struggle with a projected total of just 3.61 runs. Considering these factors, the Yankees appear well-positioned to bounce back from their recent loss and capitalize on their home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Batters such as Anthony Santander with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Max Fried who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Max Fried's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (57.1 compared to 49.1% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

New York Yankees batters as a group grade out in MLB for power this year when using their 12.8% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+4.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.45 Units / 54% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+6.25 Units / 12% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.79, New York Yankees 4.94

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Max Fried - Yankees

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