Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 7/9/2024

Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers

Jul 9, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Details

  • Date: July 9, 2024
  • Venue: Angel Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Max Scherzer - Rangers
    • Roansy Contreras - Angels

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rangers -170, Angels 150
Runline: Rangers -1.5 -110, Angels 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8.5

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Texas Rangers - 61% Texas Rangers - 58.7%
Los Angeles Angels - 39% Los Angeles Angels - 41.3%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels are set to host the Texas Rangers on July 9, 2024, at Angel Stadium for the second game of their series. The Angels are enduring a challenging season with a 37-52 record, while the Rangers are slightly better off at 42-48. Both teams are struggling, but the Rangers have a better chance of turning things around.

On the mound, the Angels will start Roansy Contreras, who has had a rough season. Contreras, ranked 258th among starting pitchers, sports a 4.04 ERA and a concerning 4.97 xFIP, indicating he has been fortunate thus far. His projections are grim, with an estimated 4.7 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and only 3.7 strikeouts. His performance will be crucial for the Angels, whose bullpen ranks 30th in the league according to Power Rankings.

In contrast, the Rangers will counter with Max Scherzer, the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB. Scherzer has a stellar 2.70 ERA but a 4.57 xFIP, suggesting he's also been a bit lucky. The projections are more favorable for him, with an estimated 5.6 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs allowed, and 6.5 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Angels rank 20th in MLB and have been inconsistent, though they rank 8th in stolen bases and 15th in home runs. Logan O'Hoppe has been the standout hitter for the Angels recently, batting .278 over the last week. The Rangers' offense is slightly better, ranking 16th, with Corey Seager leading the charge. Seager has been on fire, hitting .421 with 8 hits, 5 runs, and 6 RBIs in his last 5 games.

The betting odds favor the Rangers with a moneyline of -165, giving them a 60% implied win probability. The Angels are underdogs at +145, with a 40% implied win probability. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup offers intriguing dynamics for bettors, especially with both starting pitchers showing signs of potential regression.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

  • This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Roansy Contreras's slider usage has decreased by 13.5% from last season to this one (43.3% to 29.8%) .

  • Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Luis Guillorme is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers has just 1 same-handed RP.

  • Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Los Angeles Angels offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+11.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Zach Neto has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 23 games at home (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.53 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.33

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-184
84% TEX
+155
16% LAA

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-112
3% UN
8.5/-108
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-115
95% TEX
+1.5/-105
5% LAA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TEX
Team Stats
LAA
3.98
ERA
4.58
.236
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.21
WHIP
1.39
.282
BABIP
.301
7.7%
BB%
9.9%
22.5%
K%
23.6%
72.9%
LOB%
71.2%
.273
Batting Avg
.251
.464
SLG
.437
.807
OPS
.761
.342
OBP
.324
TEX
Team Records
LAA
26-23
Home
22-29
22-29
Road
21-28
36-37
vRHP
35-47
12-15
vLHP
8-10
27-34
vs>.500
27-42
21-18
vs<.500
16-15
6-4
Last10
6-4
11-9
Last20
9-11
15-15
Last30
15-15
M. Scherzer
R. Contreras
N/A
Innings
N/A
N/A
GS
N/A
N/A
W-L
N/A
N/A
ERA
N/A
N/A
K/9
N/A
N/A
BB/9
N/A
N/A
HR/9
N/A
N/A
LOB%
N/A
N/A
HR/FB%
N/A
N/A
FIP
N/A
N/A
xFIP
N/A

M. Scherzer

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 PHI
Eflin N/A
W10-6 N/A
6
5
4
4
9
1
68-94
4/25 STL
Mikolas N/A
W5-2 N/A
7
2
0
0
10
1
71-101
4/19 SF
Webb N/A
W3-1 N/A
7
1
1
1
10
3
66-102
4/13 PHI
Nola N/A
W9-6 N/A
5
5
1
1
7
3
66-96
4/8 WSH
Gray N/A
W7-3 N/A
6
3
3
3
6
1
53-80

R. Contreras

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/29 CHC
Hendricks N/A
L2-3 N/A
3
3
0
0
4
1
29-46

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TEX LAA
TEX LAA
Consensus
-162
+140
-184
+155
-166
+140
-185
+154
-162
+136
-178
+150
-175
+145
-186
+155
-165
+140
-178
+150
-165
+140
-190
+155
Open
Current
Book
TEX LAA
TEX LAA
Consensus
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-119)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-107)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-117)
-1.5 (-115)
+1.5 (-106)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-110)
+1.5 (-110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-122)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-106)
8.5 (-114)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-113)
8.5 (-107)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)