Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/9/2025

On May 9, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Tigers currently boast a strong 25-13 record, placing them firmly in the playoff race, while the Rangers find themselves struggling at 18-20. The Tigers have been riding a wave of momentum, entering this game on a four-game winning streak.

Detroit's Tarik Skubal, projected to start, is having an exceptional season, ranking 1st among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a 2.21 ERA and a projection of 6.1 innings today, Skubal’s elite performance has been pivotal for the Tigers. He projects to allow just 1.7 earned runs and strike out 7.0 batters, making him a significant threat against the Rangers.

In contrast, Texas will counter with Patrick Corbin, who, despite a respectable 3.28 ERA, ranks among the lower tiers of MLB pitchers according to the projections. His expected metrics suggest he may be overperforming, and he could struggle against a Tigers offense that ranks 6th in the league. The Tigers have been particularly effective, hitting for average and power, while Texas ranks 27th in offensive performance overall.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Tigers favored heavily at -260, this matchup strongly favors Detroit. The projections suggest that while Skubal dominates, Corbin might struggle to match his opponent’s effectiveness, leading to a potential lopsided affair. Expect the Tigers to leverage their home-field advantage and offensive firepower against a struggling Rangers lineup today.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Patrick Corbin's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (64.2% vs. 58.6% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.314) suggests that Marcus Semien has suffered from bad luck this year with his .227 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's 96.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 97th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Spencer Torkelson has big-time power (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (26.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin doesn't generate many whiffs (25th percentile K%) — great news for Torkelson.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Detroit Tigers today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 26% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.24, Detroit Tigers 4.57

• Date: May 9, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

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