Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/10/2025

As the Detroit Tigers host the Texas Rangers on May 10, 2025, both teams look to secure a crucial win in this American League matchup. The Tigers, currently sitting at 26-13, are enjoying a strong season, while the Rangers are struggling at 18-21. In their previous game, the Tigers emerged victorious, continuing their momentum as they aim to solidify their position in the standings.

On the mound, Detroit's Jack Flaherty faces off against Texas's Jacob deGrom. Flaherty, despite his 1-4 record, has shown promise with a solid 3.79 ERA and a 3.11 xFIP, indicating that he could be due for better results. He projects to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs, and striking out 6.0 batters. However, he will need to improve on his projected average of 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks allowed.

In contrast, Jacob deGrom, an elite pitcher ranked 15th in MLB, boasts a remarkable 2.61 ERA and a 2-1 record. His projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while striking out 6.1 batters. However, his high 4.3 hits and 1.4 walks allowed indicate that he may be vulnerable.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 4th in MLB, highlighted by their 1st ranking in team batting average, while the Rangers find themselves at 27th in overall offense. This disparity gives the Tigers a significant edge, as they look to capitalize on their strong batting lineup against a struggling Rangers offense.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and both teams' moneylines at -110, betting markets anticipate a closely contested game. However, the projections favor the Tigers, who may exceed their low implied team total of 3.75 runs, making them a team to watch in this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jacob deGrom is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Joc Pederson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 96.3-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given the 0.47 gap between Jack Flaherty's 10.89 K/9 and his 10.42 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see negative regression in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Javier Baez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jacob deGrom.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Trey Sweeney hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.50 Units / 48% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 25% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.47, Detroit Tigers 3.84

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

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