Texas Rangers vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 4/2/2025

Texas Rangers vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Texas Rangers on April 2, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup as both teams look to build momentum in the early season. The Reds, currently sitting at 2-3, are hoping to bounce back after a tough start, while the Rangers stand at a strong 4-2, showcasing a promising beginning to their campaign.

In their previous game, the Reds suffered a frustrating loss, which added to their struggles this season. The Reds are projected to start Hunter Greene, who has shown flashes of brilliance despite his 3.60 ERA this year. Greene ranks as the 29th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, indicating he has the potential to elevate his performance. However, he faces a challenge against a Rangers offense that ranks 41st in the league, struggling to make consistent contact.

On the other side, the Rangers will send out Jack Leiter, who has impressed with a 1.80 ERA in his lone start this season. Despite his excellent numbers, the projections suggest he may be due for some regression, given his elevated 3.00 xFIP. Leiter's low walk rate could benefit him against a Reds offense that ranks 2nd in the league for the least walks.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. The odds favor the Reds with a moneyline of -135, suggesting that betting markets believe they have the edge. If Greene can harness his strikeout ability against a low-strikeout Rangers lineup, he might just lead the Reds to a much-needed victory. The projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.50 runs for Cincinnati, emphasizing their potential to capitalize on the Rangers' bullpen, which ranks 26th in the league.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jack Leiter's high usage percentage of his fastball (53.9% since the start of last season) is likely harming his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Since the start of last season, Corey Seager's 15.2% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 95th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's 97.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 99th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This year, there has been a decline in Elly De La Cruz's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.03 ft/sec last year to 27.48 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 86 of their last 149 games (+14.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.15 Units / 43% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

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