The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees close out a four-game series at Fenway Park on Sunday night. Boston has won the first three games, putting New York in a spot it rarely finds itself in: trying to avoid getting swept by its oldest rival. Sonny Gray, who has been one of the better arms in baseball all year, gets the ball for the home team, while Carlos Rodon tries to give the Yankees a solid performance and a measure of pride before the team heads back to the Bronx.
Our Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
- Pick: Red Sox Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
Yankees vs Red Sox Model Projection
- Score Projection: Red Sox 5 – Yankees 4
- Win Probability: Red Sox 54%, Yankees 46%
Gray enters at 9-1 with a 2.95 ERA and has given his team a record of 10-4 on the runline in his own starts, a sign that this version of the Red Sox plays differently when he is on the mound. New York’s offense has been worn down by injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, and while Rodon has shown flashes of his old form, his 4-2 mark and 3.70 ERA suggest a pitcher who can keep his team in a game rather than dominate it. Add in the fact that Boston has thumped left-handed pitching all season, and the door is open for a fourth straight game of frustration for the visitors.
The Yankees still own the better overall numbers in nearly every meaningful category, from team ERA to home run production, and Gray cannot be expected to repeat his dominant form every single time out. But Boston has the slight edge thanks to its starter and the building confidence that comes with three consecutive wins over the Yankees.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 28, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Carlos Rodon (LHP, NYY, 4-2, 3.70 ERA) vs Sonny Gray (RHP, BOS, 9-1, 2.95 ERA)
- Stadium: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
- Broadcast: NBC/Peacock
Yankees vs Red Sox Same Game Parlay
- Red Sox Moneyline (-120)
- Under 8 Total Runs (-116)
- Willson Contreras to hit a home run (+453)
Combined odds: +1500 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Gray’s ability to keep hitters off balance and the absence of Judge and Stanton from New York’s order both point to a tighter, lower-scoring night, which supports the under and the Red Sox side of the moneyline together. Contreras gives the parlay its power piece. He has 17 home runs in Boston’s 81 games this season and bumps the odds up for this parlay significantly.
Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop
Willson Contreras to hit a home run (+453 at DraftKings Sportsbook) stands out as the best power play on the board. Boston owns the best batting average in baseball against left-handed pitching this season, and Contreras has been the engine of that production, riding a recent stretch that includes a homer and three walks over his last five games. Facing a left-hander like Rodon, who has battled inconsistency in 2026, gives Contreras a clear platoon edge, and the price reflects value relative to his current form.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season series: Tied 4-4 entering Sunday, with Boston winning the first three games of this four-game set.
- Red Sox home record: 15-25 this season, the worst home mark in MLB.
- Yankees road record: 26-19 this season, among the better road records in MLB.
Stat Comparison
| Category | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .241 | .244 |
| OPS | .756 | .699 |
| wOBA | .331 | .310 |
| wRC+ | 111 | 91 |
| Team ERA | 3.34 | 3.73 |
| xFIP | 3.86 | 3.93 |
The xFIP number is especially interesting here, as it is a much better indicator of how teams are pitching without external factors than ERA. The Yankees have a much better team ERA than Boston, but the xFIP for both teams shows that the true skill of their pitching staffs isn’t all that different. And with Boston winning the first three games of this series, there is real reason to believe they can complete the sweep tonight.
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