Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 4/8/2025

Texas Rangers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

On April 8, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Texas Rangers at Wrigley Field for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are having solid seasons, with the Cubs holding an 8-5 record and the Rangers at 8-3. The Cubs, currently projected to start right-hander Jameson Taillon, are a betting favorite with a moneyline of -155, reflecting an implied win probability of 59%. Conversely, the Rangers, under the left-handed pitching of Patrick Corbin, are seen as underdogs at +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

Jameson Taillon has had a rocky start this season, with a 1-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.97. However, his 4.42 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Taillon is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings and allow approximately 2.6 earned runs today, which is above average. On the other hand, Corbin has struggled significantly, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB, and projects for just 4.9 innings with 2.9 earned runs allowed.

In their last matchup, the Cubs managed a victory, and with their home-field advantage, they look to build on that momentum. While both teams have shown flashes of talent, the Cubs' ability to generate power and better pitching matchup gives them a solid edge heading into this game. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, it may be a tight contest, but the Cubs are poised to take advantage of their opportunity.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Patrick Corbin's 91.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Justin Turner tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Patrick Corbin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected batting order today (.328 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .341 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+15.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)
• Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.40 Units / 77% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

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