Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet – 6/25/2024

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers are set to face off on June 25, 2024, in the second game of their series at American Family Field. The Brewers, who are enjoying a strong season with a 46-33 record, are currently leading the NL Central. On the other hand, the Rangers are struggling, sitting at 37-41 and falling behind in the AL West.

In their last matchup on June 24, the Brewers emerged victorious with a 6-3 win. The Brewers were favored in that game with a closing Moneyline price of -170, reflecting a 62% implied win probability. The Rangers, who were underdogs at +155, couldn't overcome the odds despite a commendable effort.

The pitching matchup for today features Bryse Wilson for the Brewers and Andrew Heaney for the Rangers. Wilson, a right-hander, has had a mixed season with a 4.24 ERA and a 4-3 record. However, his underlying metrics, including a 5.14 FIP, suggest he’s been fortunate and may regress. Wilson's recent performance was shaky, allowing five earned runs over five innings in his last start on June 20. He’ll need to rebound against a Rangers offense ranked 22nd in MLB.

Heaney, a left-hander, brings a 4.21 ERA into this contest but has struggled with a 2-8 record. Despite his control, allowing just 6.4% walks, Heaney’s been inconsistent. He did pitch a solid game on June 19, going six innings with three earned runs and nine strikeouts. He’ll face a Brewers offense that ranks 9th overall and excels in batting average and stolen bases.

The Brewers offense, led by Willy Adames, who boasts a .772 OPS, will look to capitalize on Heaney’s weaknesses. Meanwhile, Marcus Semien anchors the Rangers lineup with 11 home runs and 44 RBIs this season.

The Brewers have a slight edge with a current Moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the Rangers sit at +110 with a 46% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely with the betting markets, projecting the Brewers’ win probability at 51%.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Heaney to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (7th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Adolis Garcia has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bryse Wilson is a pitch-to-contact type (25th percentile K%) — great news for Garcia.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Jonah Heim pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Bryse Wilson has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+15.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.65 Units / 25% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.19 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.09

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.