Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/25/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays at Petco Park on April 25, 2025, both teams are looking to establish early dominance in this interleague matchup. The Padres have been on a roll this season and stand at 17-8, while the Rays are struggling at 11-14. In this game, Michael King will take the mound. He enters this contest with a 2.57 ERA, highlighting his status as the 23rd best starting pitcher according to our advanced stats.

The Padres offense ranks 5th overall in MLB performance, with a strong batting average that places them 3rd among all teams. However, they face a challenging opponent in Shane Baz, who, despite his lower ranking of 47th among MLB starters, has flashed potential with a 3.22 ERA. Baz's recent performances suggest he has been a bit unlucky, which could bode well for the Padres. As a high-strikeout pitcher with a K% of 33.7, Baz's matchup against the Padres’ low-strikeout offense—ranked 1st in the league—could play into San Diego's favor.

From a betting perspective, the Padres are currently favored with a moneyline of -140, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure a victory. The projections indicate a low total of 7.0 runs for the game, pointing to a potential pitcher's duel. With both teams having offensive rankings that could be better, the Padres' 5th-best batting prowess against a solid pitcher like Baz creates an intriguing contrast. Given their strong start and King’s elite performance, the Padres appear well-positioned to continue their successful run in this tightly contested matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among all SPs, Shane Baz's fastball velocity of 96.1 mph is in the 94th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Danny Jansen generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael King.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tampa Bay's 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #10 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Oscar Gonzalez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.00 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 72% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.67, San Diego Padres 3.8

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Michael King - Padres

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