Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 4/22/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of their interleague series at Chase Field. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, with Arizona currently sitting at 13-9, showcasing a solid start, while Tampa Bay struggles at 9-13.

The matchup on the mound features Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks, who comes in with a 3-1 record and a strong 3.04 ERA this season. While his xFIP of 3.68 suggests he might have been a bit lucky, Pfaadt's overall performance has been a key factor in Arizona's success. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs, but he’ll need to improve on his average of 6.0 hits allowed to keep the Rays at bay.

Facing him will be Zack Littell, who is still searching for his first win of the season with an 0-4 record and a troubling 5.48 ERA. Although he has a lower xFIP of 3.99, indicating he may have been unlucky, Littell's struggles, particularly with strikeouts—posting just a 20.0% K-rate—could be exploited by the Diamondbacks' potent offense, which ranks as the 3rd best in MLB this season.

With the Diamondbacks favored to win with a moneyline of -160, they are projected to score an impressive 4.68 runs. Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, Arizona looks to capitalize on this opportunity to extend their lead in the standings.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all starters, Zack Littell's fastball spin rate of 2022.5 rpm ranks in the 9th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue in the league in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, Eugenio Suarez has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 99.3 mph compared to last year's 92.6 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Arizona's 90.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 33% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.58, Arizona Diamondbacks 5.02

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

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