Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 29, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Bryse Wilson - Brewers
• Run Line: Rays 1.5 -215, Brewers -1.5 185
• Money Line: Rays -105, Brewers -115
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 49%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 51%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 48.45%
• Milwaukee Brewers - 51.55%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 29, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at American Family Field. As the home team, the Brewers will look to continue their successful season, boasting a record of 17-10. Meanwhile, the Rays have struggled this season with a record of 13-16.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryse Wilson, who has been having a solid season with a 2-0 record and an impressive 3.50 ERA. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Wilson to be one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. On the other hand, the Rays are projected to start Ryan Pepiot, an average pitcher with a 3.77 ERA this season.

This game marks the first matchup between these two teams in the series. The Brewers' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the third-best in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks low at 27th. In contrast, the Rays have struggled offensively, ranking as the 25th best team in MLB. Nevertheless, they excel in home runs, ranking fourth in the league.

The Brewers' bullpen is considered one of the best in MLB, ranking ninth in advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Rays' bullpen, while still solid, ranks slightly lower at 14th. Both teams will look to rely on their pitching staff to secure the victory.

In terms of the betting odds, the Brewers are favored with a moneyline set at -115, giving them a 51% implied win probability. The Rays have a moneyline of -105, with a 49% implied win probability. This suggests that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Based on projections, Wilson is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 4.5 batters but also allow 5.2 hits and 1.2 walks on average. Pepiot, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 5.5 batters but also allow 4.2 hits and 1.8 walks on average.

With Wilson being a high-flyball pitcher and the Rays having a powerful offense, featuring the fourth-most home runs in MLB, the Rays may have an advantage in turning Wilson's flyballs into home runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Ryan Pepiot (40.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Milwaukee's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Milwaukee's #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Isaac Paredes, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Bryse Wilson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 7 opposing bats today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Blake Perkins will bat from his bad side against Ryan Pepiot in this game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+8.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ryan Pepiot has hit the Earned Runs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.75 Units / 33% ROI)

Rays vs Brewers Prediction: Rays 4.15 - Brewers 4.05

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