St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 5/10/2025

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 10, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight matchup. The Nationals currently sit at 17-22, struggling through a rough season, while the Cardinals, at 20-19, are hovering around the .500 mark. This game marks the second in their series, with the Cardinals looking to build momentum after last night's victory.

On the mound, the Nationals will send Trevor Williams to the hill. Williams has had a challenging season, with a record of 2-3 and an alarming ERA of 5.86, making him one of the less effective starters in MLB according to advanced metrics, ranking him 233rd out of around 350 pitchers. His projected performance for today suggests he will pitch about 5.3 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs, but he has struggled with allowing 5.2 hits and 1.6 walks per game, which could be problematic against a capable Cardinals lineup.

Conversely, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante, who boasts a more respectable 2-2 record and an ERA of 4.75. Pallante's projections indicate he should pitch roughly 5.9 innings with an expected 2.5 earned runs allowed, making him a slightly more favorable option. While his strikeout numbers are lower than ideal, Pallante's performance has been steadier compared to Williams.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 14th in MLB, while the Cardinals come in at 10th. The Cardinals have an exceptional batting average, ranking 2nd overall, which could exploit Williams’s struggles. Betting markets reflect a competitive atmosphere, with the Nationals’ moneyline at -105, suggesting a close contest. With high implied team totals of 4.45 runs for the Nationals and 4.55 for the Cardinals, this matchup promises to be an intriguing affair for bettors and fans alike.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante (59.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 6 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Masyn Winn has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Trevor Williams's slider percentage has spiked by 5.7% from last season to this one (34.7% to 40.4%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

James Wood has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last season's 96.6-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.73, Washington Nationals 4.05

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

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