The second half of the 2026 season begins with a divisional game on full display at Citizens Bank Park, where the Philadelphia Phillies (54-43) welcome the New York Mets (40-57) for the first of a three-game set on Thursday night. Philadelphia sits two games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East and enters as the host coming off the All-Star break, while New York is still trying to climb out of last place in the division. Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies against Christian Scott, and the Phillies enter this game as a slight favorite at home.
Our Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Pick: Phillies ML
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Mets vs Phillies Model Projection
- Score Projection: Phillies 6, Mets 4
- Win Probability: Phillies 60%, Mets 40%
Nola’s 5.75 ERA and 1.43 WHIP make him an easy pitcher to pick against on paper, but the Mets simply haven’t given opposing arms much reason for concern this year. New York ranks 26th in the league in runs scored and owns the sport’s 29th-ranked on-base percentage at .303. Christian Scott, while effective in a small sample at 2-1 with a 3.17 ERA, still has to face a Phillies lineup that gets it done against right-handers. Juan Soto remains a legitimate offensive threat in the middle of this order, but the rest of the New York attack has not done enough to offset a bullpen and rotation that rank in the bottom half of most pitching categories.
Philadelphia’s own pitching numbers are far from elite, sitting at a 4.23 team ERA, but the Phillies get to play behind Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and a lineup that has scored enough runs to overcome shaky individual outings from starters like Nola. Home-field advantage and lineup depth are the difference-makers here, and our model leans toward the Phillies starting the second half in style in front of their own fans.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 16, 2026, 7:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA) vs Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA)
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Broadcast: ESPN
Mets vs Phillies Same Game Parlay
- Leg 1: Phillies -1.5 on the run line (+149)
- Leg 2: Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+118)
- Leg 3: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-111)
Total Parlay Odds: +600
Nola has struggled enough this season that multi-run innings against him are a real possibility, which supports the over. Turner has been a table-setter for a lineup that ranks well ahead of the Mets in slugging, and asking him for a single extra-base hit or multiple singles is a reasonable choice given the volume of at-bats he sees near the top of the order. Then, we’ll add the Phillies runline to close things out, as they should create enough separation against a less-than-stellar Mets lineup.
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop
Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+176, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Schwarber leads MLB in home runs this season and has been the most dangerous power bat on either roster, with a lefty-friendly short porch in right field at Citizens Bank Park working in his favor all year. Scott has shown he can miss bats, but he’s a right-hander who will need to work carefully against a hitter who does his damage in the air, and Schwarber gets an extra edge simply by playing every game at home this week.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Head-to-head this season: Phillies lead the season series 4-2 over the Mets.
- Mets games hitting the over this season: 45 of 97 total games.
- Phillies games hitting the over: 41 of 95 total games.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Mets | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average | .234 | .236 |
| OPS | .683 | .702 |
| wOBA | .301 | .308 |
| wRC+ | 92 | 91 |
| Team ERA | 4.27 | 4.23 |
| xFIP | 3.99 | 3.54 |
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