The New York Liberty head to Arlington on a three-game skid, and the Dallas Wings have won five straight going into their meeting on Thursday night. Dallas has already beaten New York twice this season, and with the Liberty missing two key rotation pieces, the Wings enter as home favorites looking to complete a season sweep at College Park Center.
Our Liberty vs Wings Prediction
- Pick: Dallas Wings -1.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Liberty vs Wings Model Projection
- Score Projection: New York 83 – Dallas 89
- Win Probability: New York 40%, Dallas 60%
Dallas has been the more consistent team for weeks, and the numbers back that up. The Wings have won five in a row, including a comeback victory over Chicago on Sunday, and they’ve already handled New York twice this season by shutting down the Liberty’s outside shooting. New York shot under 46% from the field in both meetings, and Dallas gets a third crack at that formula with the extra benefit of the Liberty being without two key wing pieces.
Sabrina Ionescu has scored 20 or more points in back-to-back games, and Breanna Stewart remains a nightly 20-point threat, so New York has enough firepower to stay within a possession or two. But without Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich, the Liberty’s depth thins out significantly, and Dallas has shown it can grind out close games with Paige Bueckers running the show late. Our model leans Wings by six, with the total settling just under the market number.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 16, 2026, 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: College Park Center, Arlington, Texas
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Liberty vs Wings Same Game Parlay
- Dallas Wings Moneyline at -125
- Under 176.5 Total Points at -110
- Paige Bueckers Over 21.5 Points at -113
Combined odds for the three-leg parlay: +500 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dallas has won both meetings with New York this season while holding the Liberty under 46% shooting each time, which supports both the moneyline and the under. Bueckers has been the focal point of Dallas’ offense all season, and she’s averaging 20.7 points per game while directing an attack that just posted five double-figure scorers against Chicago. We’ll take her to have a big game to round out our parlay ticket.
Liberty vs Wings Prop Bet
Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 Rebounds at -118 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Shepard is Dallas’ leading rebounder at 11.6 per game, and she’s coming off a triple-double against New York on July 7 that included 12 boards. She also produced a 20-rebound performance earlier this season, so she should be able to clear this total against a Liberty frontcourt that will be without Fiebich’s length on the wing.
Injury Report
- New York Liberty: Satou Sabally is out in concussion protocol and did not travel with the team for this game.
- New York Liberty: Leonie Fiebich is out with left foot soreness and did not travel with the team for this game.
- Dallas Wings: Alanna Smith is doubtful with a lower leg injury suffered in Sunday’s win over Chicago.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Season series: Dallas leads 2-0, winning 91-76 on May 24 and 88-77 on July 7.
- Dallas has won five straight games and is 7-3 over its last 10 contests.
- New York has lost three straight games and is 3-7 over its last 10 contests.
- Dallas is 12-12 against the spread this season.
- New York is 10-14 against the spread in 2026.
Stat Comparison
| Category | New York Liberty | Dallas Wings |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | 109.4 | 111.3 |
| Defensive Rating | 105.1 | 106.1 |
| Net Rating | +4.3 | +5.2 |
| Pace | 95.90 | 96.02 |
| Effective FG % | 53.5% | 52.0% |
| Rebound % | 52.2% | 51.0% |
More Baseball Betting Resources
- All Baseball Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets
- MLB Parlay Picks
- MLB Prop Bets
- NRFI Picks Today
- MLB Betting Bonuses
