St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/9/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on April 9, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing early in the season. The Pirates currently sit at 4-8, while the Cardinals are slightly better at 5-6. Despite their records, this matchup holds significance as it is the third game in their series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum.

In the last game, the Pirates fell short, continuing a rough stretch that has seen them rank 24th in MLB in both team batting average and home runs. The Cardinals, on the other hand, boast a much stronger offense, ranking 2nd in the league overall and 1st in batting average. This stark contrast in offensive performance could tilt the odds in favor of St. Louis, especially considering the power of their lineup.

On the mound, the Pirates will start Mitch Keller, who has been underwhelming with a 7.45 ERA this season. Although his xFIP of 4.71 suggests he may be due for a turnaround, Keller's projected performance includes allowing 5.8 hits and 2.7 earned runs over an average of 5.9 innings—numbers that don’t inspire confidence. In contrast, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who has an average ERA of 7.00 but projects slightly better in terms of earned runs allowed and innings pitched.

With the Pirates' offense struggling and Keller's inconsistency, the Cardinals appear to hold the edge in this matchup. The projections suggest a close game, but the strength of the Cardinals' offense against a faltering Pirates pitching staff could lead to a favorable outcome for St. Louis.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde has used his change-up 6.3% less often this year (10.1%) than he did last year (16.4%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Brendan Donovan has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 5.5% rate last season to 14.8% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals bats jointly grade out 27th- in the majors for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Jack Suwinski's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 92.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 85.1-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Joey Bart is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.8% rate (87th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games at home (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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