St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction For 7/23/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: July 23, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals square off on July 23, 2024, at PNC Park for the second game of their series. The Pirates, sitting at 51-49, are having an average season and currently rank 3rd in the National League Central. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, boasting a 52-48 record, are having an above-average season and sit just above the Pirates in the 2nd spot.

The Pirates are projected to start Paul Skenes, who has been nothing short of elite this season. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Skenes is currently the 3rd best starting pitcher in the league, sporting an impressive 1.90 ERA. However, his peripheral stats like a 2.62 xERA suggest he might have been a bit lucky and could regress. Skenes has been fantastic with a 6-0 record over 11 starts, averaging 5.8 innings, 6.9 strikeouts, and just 2.1 earned runs per outing.

On the mound for the Cardinals will be Lance Lynn, who has had an average season with a 4.39 ERA and a 5-4 record over 19 starts. Lynn’s 4.92 xERA indicates he’s also been somewhat fortunate and might see his performance dip. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled this season, ranking 27th in overall offense. They’ve been particularly weak in batting average (25th), home runs (23rd), and stolen bases (21st). On the other hand, the Cardinals have been more balanced, ranking 17th in overall offense, with average rankings in batting average (13th) and stolen bases (19th), but struggling with power at 22nd in home runs.

Oneil Cruz has been a bright spot for the Pirates, hitting .375 with a 1.162 OPS, 7 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over the last week. For the Cardinals, Lars Nootbaar has been their standout hitter, posting a .357 batting average and a 1.080 OPS over the same period.

The Pirates are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -180, implying a 62% chance of victory. THE BAT X projections align closely with this, giving the Pirates a 61% win probability. The Cardinals, as +155 underdogs, face an uphill battle, but with a solid bullpen ranked 4th in the league, they could still surprise.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Lance Lynn has utilized his secondary offerings 6.9% less often this season (36.9%) than he did last year (43.8%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.0) provides evidence that Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year with his 30.4 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.1% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2235 rpm) has been quite a bit lower than than his seasonal rate (2289 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 away games (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.20 Units / 131% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.74 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.73

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