Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 4/17/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On April 17, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Seattle Mariners at Great American Ball Park for the third game in their interleague series. Both teams are currently sitting at .500 with matching 9-9 records, indicating that they are in the midst of average seasons. The Reds came off a lackluster performance yesterday, struggling offensively, which has been a recurring theme this season as they rank 27th in the league in offense, 28th in team batting average, and 25th in stolen bases.

Projected to take the mound for Cincinnati is Brady Singer, who has started the season strong with a perfect 3-0 record and a solid 3.18 ERA. His advanced stats indicate he may have been somewhat unlucky, as his xERA of 2.67 suggests he could perform even better moving forward. Singer is averaging 6.5 strikeouts per game, but has been prone to allowing too many hits and walks, which could be an issue against opponents like the Mariners, who rank 8th in team home runs.

Bryan Woo will pitch for the Mariners, boasting a commendable 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.84. Despite his strong start, his xFIP of 3.52 hints that he may not maintain this level of performance. Both pitchers are right-handed, and the match-up could hinge on how each team's offense supports them. With the Reds’ struggles at the plate, they face a significant challenge against Woo.

The betting markets have set both teams' moneyline at -110, reflecting a close contest anticipated by oddsmakers. With projected team totals sitting at 4.00 runs each, this game promises to be tightly contested, but the Reds might find themselves outmatched unless their offense can ignite against Woo.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bats such as Jorge Polanco with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer's 91.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 20th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Reds projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .307 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 42% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.66, Cincinnati Reds 3.95

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Brady Singer - Reds

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.