Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 5/3/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On May 3, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, with a record of 11-20, are having a tough season, while the Mariners, with a record of 17-14, are performing above average. This American League West matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ronel Blanco, who has been having a solid season. Blanco has started five games this year, boasting a perfect 3-0 win/loss record and an excellent 1.65 ERA. However, his 4.25 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress in future performances.

On the other hand, the Mariners will send right-handed pitcher George Kirby to the mound. Kirby has started six games this season, with a 3-2 win/loss record and a 4.18 ERA. His 3.06 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better in upcoming outings.

Blanco is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 5.7 batters, and giving up 4.3 hits and 2.1 walks. Kirby, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.8 batters, and surrendering 5.7 hits and 1.0 walk.

In terms of offense, the Astros rank as the fourth-best team in MLB this season, while the Mariners rank 26th. The Astros have a strong lineup, ranking ninth in home runs and 14th in team batting average. The Mariners, however, have struggled offensively, ranking 24th in batting average.

According to the current odds, the Astros have an implied win probability of 51%, while the Mariners have an implied win probability of 49%. This suggests that the game is expected to be a close matchup.

Based on the projections and the team rankings, the Astros have the edge in pitching and offense. However, the Mariners cannot be counted out, as Kirby is a high-strikeout pitcher facing an Astros offense that ranks fifth in the fewest strikeouts in MLB.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between two division rivals. The Astros will look to turn their season around, while the Mariners aim to continue their above-average performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Among all the teams in action today, the worst outfield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (39.4) may lead us to conclude that Dylan Moore has been unlucky since the start of last season with his 20.6 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to league average, Ronel Blanco has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.5 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+13.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.13 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jon Singleton has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.63 vs Houston Astros 4.49

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