San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros Pick – 3/31/2025

San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants gear up for their first meeting of the season on March 31, 2025, both teams are off to a promising start, each holding a record of 2-1. This Interleague matchup takes place at Minute Maid Park, where the Astros hope to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The stakes are notable, as both teams are showcasing strong offensive potential: the Astros rank 8th in the league, while the Giants sit at 19th.

In their last outing, the Giants' pitcher Jordan Hicks will look to bounce back after struggling with consistency. Meanwhile, the Astros are projected to start Ronel Blanco, who currently holds the 255th spot among MLB starters according to advanced stats, indicating some room for improvement. Blanco projects to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, but his alarming projections for hits and walks could open the door for the Giants' offense, which has been tepid at times.

On the other hand, Hicks’s projections indicate he could allow 2.2 earned runs over 5.0 innings, which is relatively solid. However, his strikeout rate is below-average, and the Giants will need to capitalize on this to prove they can compete against a stronger Astros lineup.

The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive battle. With the Astros holding an implied team total of 4.19 runs against the Giants' 3.81, it suggests that Houston is favored to win. However, the Giants’ strong bullpen, ranked 6th, may provide an edge late in the game. Overall, while both teams have been impressive, the Astros’ offensive capabilities and home advantage may tilt the game in their favor.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Jordan Hicks's 2126-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 20th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Since the start of last season, Heliot Ramos's 14.7% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 94th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants's expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ronel Blanco to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 150 games (+17.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 away games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+5.15 Units / 17% ROI)

• Date: March 31, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

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