San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 7/5/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erik Miller - Giants
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and San Francisco Giants are set to face off on July 5, 2024, at Progressive Field in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Guardians, who have been having a great season with a 54-31 record, will host the Giants, who are sitting at an average 43-45. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

Tanner Bibee, the Guardians' right-handed pitcher, takes the mound with an impressive season thus far. Bibee boasts a 7-2 record and a stellar 3.47 ERA over 17 starts. His recent performance on June 29 saw him pitch six solid innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out three. According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bibee is the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB, underscoring his excellence.

On the other side, the Giants will start Erik Miller, a lefty who has primarily worked out of the bullpen this season. Miller's ERA stands at a respectable 3.69, although his peripheral stats suggest some inconsistency. His xERA of 3.00 indicates he’s been a bit unlucky, while his 4.44 FIP suggests he might have been fortunate in some outings. Despite his 2-2 record and 40 bullpen appearances, Miller is projected to pitch only 1.1 innings today, which could strain the Giants' bullpen, albeit the top-ranked unit in MLB.

Offensively, the Guardians hold an edge. Their lineup ranks 12th in overall offense, with notable strength in home runs (10th) and stolen bases (8th). Jose Ramirez has been a standout, hitting .273 with 23 home runs and 76 RBIs. Comparatively, the Giants’ offense is 13th overall and struggles with power, ranking 15th in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. However, Matt Chapman has been a bright spot, especially over the last week, hitting .375 with a 1.304 OPS, including three home runs and nine RBIs.

From a betting perspective, the Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -165, translating to a 60% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests this might be a closer game than the odds imply, projecting the Giants with a 46% chance of winning. Given the value on the Giants as underdogs, there might be an opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalize on the market's hesitation.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Erik Miller is projected to throw 61 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Brett Wisely has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 83.6-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen profiles as the best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 10.51 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.81 — a 0.70 K/9 gap.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Steven Kwan has been lucky this year, notching a .406 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .309 — a .097 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games at home (+13.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 59 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 40% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.73 vs Cleveland Guardians 3.81

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