San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 6/3/2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants

Jun 3, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: June 3, 2024
  • Venue: Chase Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Spencer Howard - Giants
    • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Giants 115, D-Backs -135
Runline: Giants 1.5 -185, D-Backs -1.5 160
Over/Under Total: 9 -110

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
San Francisco Giants - 45% San Francisco Giants - 46.23%
Arizona Diamondbacks - 55% Arizona Diamondbacks - 53.77%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the San Francisco Giants in a National League West matchup on June 3, 2024. The game will take place at Chase Field, with the Diamondbacks serving as the home team.

Both teams have struggled this season, with the Diamondbacks holding a record of 27-32 and the Giants sitting at 29-31. The Diamondbacks, in particular, are having a below-average season.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryne Nelson, who has had a tough year with an ERA of 6.02. However, his 4.32 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. On the other side, the Giants are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Howard, who has only started one game this season and has an ERA of 0.00. However, his 2.90 xFIP indicates that he has been fortunate and might regress in the future.

In their last game, the Diamondbacks came out on top, defeating the New York Mets 5-4. The Giants, on the other hand, suffered a 7-5 loss to the New York Yankees. The Diamondbacks' offense has been performing at an average level this season, ranking 12th in the MLB. Their best hitter has been Ketel Marte, who has recorded 39 runs, 32 RBIs, and 12 home runs with a batting average of .270 and an OPS of .832.

The Giants' offense has struggled, ranking 17th in the MLB. Their best hitter, Matt Chapman, has contributed 38 runs and 8 home runs, along with 5 stolen bases. Over the past week, the Diamondbacks' best hitter has been Randal Grichuk, hitting .500 with a 1.367 OPS. Thairo Estrada has been the Giants' standout hitter over the past week, batting .412 with an .882 OPS.

According to the projections, the Diamondbacks are favored to win with a 55% chance of victory, while the Giants have a 45% chance. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating the expectation of a high-scoring game. It's important to note that the Giants have the best bullpen in the MLB according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks 23rd.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

In his last game started, Spencer Howard turned in a great performance and gave up 0 ER.

  • A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Despite posting a .349 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Patrick Bailey has experienced some positive variance given the .057 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .292.

  • Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen projects as the best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake McCarthy's 2.4% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) ranks in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+8.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.40 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Thairo Estrada has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 29 games (+17.60 Units / 61% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.74 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.88

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+110
24% SF
-130
76% ARI

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-118
5% UN
9.0/-102
95% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-185
16% SF
-1.5/+154
84% ARI

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
SF
Team Stats
ARI
3.89
ERA
4.66
.247
Batting Avg Against
.253
1.24
WHIP
1.35
.302
BABIP
.300
6.8%
BB%
8.6%
23.1%
K%
21.9%
72.1%
LOB%
70.1%
.238
Batting Avg
.254
.389
SLG
.420
.703
OPS
.742
.314
OBP
.323
SF
Team Records
ARI
28-22
Home
26-24
20-30
Road
25-25
37-33
vRHP
36-29
11-19
vLHP
15-20
29-37
vs>.500
22-29
19-15
vs<.500
29-20
4-6
Last10
6-4
10-10
Last20
12-8
14-16
Last30
17-13
E. Miller
R. Nelson
N/A
Innings
125.0
N/A
GS
24
N/A
W-L
6-7
N/A
ERA
5.47
N/A
K/9
5.90
N/A
BB/9
2.66
N/A
HR/9
1.58
N/A
LOB%
69.0%
N/A
HR/FB%
12.2%
N/A
FIP
5.16
N/A
xFIP
5.23

E. Miller

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

R. Nelson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
SF ARI
SF ARI
Consensus
+115
-136
+110
-130
+114
-135
+110
-130
+116
-136
+112
-132
+114
-134
+112
-132
+115
-135
+110
-130
+110
-135
+105
-125
Open
Current
Book
SF ARI
SF ARI
Consensus
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+161)
+1.5 (-188)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-184)
-1.5 (+152)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+163)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+155)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-117)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-102)
9.0 (-118)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-106)
9.0 (-114)
9.0 (-106)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-117)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)