San Diego Padres VS San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Logan Webb - Giants
• Run Line: Padres 1.5 -145, Giants -1.5 125
• Money Line: Padres 145, Giants -170
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 39%
• San Francisco Giants - 61%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 32.11%
• San Francisco Giants - 67.89%

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Game Preview & Prediction

The San Francisco Giants are set to take on the San Diego Padres in a National League West matchup at Oracle Park on April 7, 2024. The Giants, with a current record of 3-6, are having a rough season, while the Padres, with a record of 5-6, are performing below average. Logan Webb is projected to start for the Giants, and Matt Waldron for the Padres. Webb, a right-handed pitcher, is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, Waldron is ranked poorly in the same rankings.

Webb has started two games this season, with an 0-1 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 6.52. However, his 3.74 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is expected to perform better in the future. Waldron has also started one game this season, with an 0-1 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 9.00. His 2.45 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well, and there is potential for improvement.

In terms of offense, the Giants rank 11th in MLB, while the Padres rank 6th. However, the Giants have struggled in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 21st and 29th, respectively. The Padres, on the other hand, have performed well in team home runs and stolen bases, ranking 10th and 7th, respectively.

Based on the current odds, the Giants are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 61%.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Logan Webb

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 57 of their last 88 games (+24.02 Units / 23% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 151 games (+15.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres 3.25 vs San Francisco Giants 4.59

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