San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 5/3/2025

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the San Diego Padres on May 3, 2025, at PNC Park, the stakes are palpable. The Pirates, struggling with a record of 12-21 this season, are currently ranked 26th in MLB offensively, while the Padres, boasting a much healthier 20-11 record, sit comfortably in average territory at 14th. This matchup follows a hard-fought game yesterday, where the Pirates lost yet again, continuing their tumultuous season.

Pittsburgh is projected to start Bailey Falter, a left-handed pitcher who has had a rough year, recording an ERA of 5.93 with a Power Rankings position of 242 out of approximately 350 starters. Despite this, advanced stats suggest he may be due for improvement, as his 4.59 xFIP indicates he has faced some unfortunate circumstances. However, the matchup against a Padres offense that ranks 3rd in batting average (currently hitting .290) could exacerbate his struggles.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Randy Vasquez, a right-handed pitcher also grappling with inconsistency, holding a 4.28 ERA this season. His xFIP of 6.74 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate thus far. Vasquez's low strikeout rate plays right into the hands of the Pirates, who struggle significantly in this department, ranking 6th in MLB for most strikeouts.

With the Pirates' offense ranked near the bottom in power and home runs, they may find it challenging to capitalize on Vasquez's flyball tendencies. Despite the odds favoring San Diego with a moneyline of -120, the Pirates' implied team total sits at a respectable 4.39 runs, hinting at potential for an upset in a matchup that promises intrigue.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Randy Vasquez has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 15% more often this season (70.9%) than he did last season (55.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Jose Iglesias tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Falter.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (90.8 mph) below where it was last season (92 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Joey Bart has big-time power (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez doesn't generate many whiffs (17th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alexander Canario, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 63% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+9.70 Units / 121% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.89, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.71

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.