San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Pick – 5/5/2025

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 5, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the San Diego Padres at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Yankees, currently sitting at 19-15, are enjoying a solid season, while the Padres boast a strong 22-11 record. This game marks the first of a series between these two teams.

In this game, the Yankees' Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound against the Padres' Nick Pivetta. Rodon has had a decent season, with a 4-3 record and a solid 3.43 ERA. However, he faces a challenge against a Padres offense that ranks 3rd in team batting average this season, despite their overall ranking of 13th. Furthermore, Rodon's high strikeout percentage of 31.7% could be mitigated by the Padres' low strikeout rate, which is the best in MLB.

Conversely, Nick Pivetta has been excellent this season, sporting a 5-1 record and an impressive 1.78 ERA. His advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as indicated by his 3.22 xFIP, but he remains a high-strikeout pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a Yankees lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts.

The Yankees' offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in MLB overall and in home runs, while the Padres rank 21st in that category. This power dynamic could tilt the game in favor of the Yankees, especially considering the projections indicate they might score around 4.01 runs, a figure that feels conservative given their offensive capabilities.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Iglesias are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Diego Padres (18.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's four-seamer percentage has fallen by 9.3% from last season to this one (49.4% to 40.1%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.15 Units / 42% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.34, New York Yankees 4.2

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

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