Merrill Kelly MLB projections and prop bets for San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks on Sep 27, 2024
Merrill Kelly Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
- Earned Runs 2.5 over: -115
- Earned Runs 2.5 under: -115
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet
The #3 venue in baseball for boosting batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.
Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.
Among all starting pitchers, Merrill Kelly's fastball velocity of 91.3 mph is in the 23rd percentile this year.
Merrill Kelly has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 3.71 figure is a good deal lower than his 4.52 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet
Among all stadiums, Chase Field's CF dimensions are the 3rd-deepest.
Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats across the board.
In his last start, Merrill Kelly was firing on all cylinders and gave up 0 ER.
Merrill Kelly has gone to his cutter 7.5% more often this season (25.7%) than he did last year (18.2%).
Projection For Merrill Kelly Earned Runs Prop Bet
Merrill Kelly is projected to have 2.9 Earned Runs in this weeks game.
Merrill Kelly Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
- Strikeouts 3.5 over: -158
- Strikeouts 3.5 under: 124
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet
Merrill Kelly will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats across the board.
Merrill Kelly has gone to his cutter 7.5% more often this season (25.7%) than he did last year (18.2%).
Out of all starters, Merrill Kelly's fastball spin rate of 2390 rpm grades out in the 80th percentile this year.
With a 1.32 deviation between Merrill Kelly's 7.28 K/9 and his 8.59 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and should perform better going forward.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet
The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 7th-worst field in the game for strikeouts.
Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for offense.
Among all starting pitchers, Merrill Kelly's fastball velocity of 91.3 mph is in the 23rd percentile this year.
Projection For Merrill Kelly Strikeouts Prop Bet
Merrill Kelly is projected to have 4.2 Strikeouts in this weeks game.
