Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 4/2/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Pittsburgh Pirates for the third game of their series on April 2, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The Rays secured a victory in yesterday's contest, showcasing their strong start to the season with a 4-1 record, while the Pirates have struggled at 1-5. Tampa Bay's pitching depth continues to impress as Ryan Pepiot takes the mound, currently ranked as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His impressive 1.50 ERA demonstrates his effectiveness, although his 2.39 xFIP suggests he may have received a bit of good fortune early this season.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with elite prospect Paul Skenes, who holds the top spot in Power Rankings for pitchers. While Skenes has a 3.38 ERA in one start this year, his 1.45 xFIP indicates he has been a bit unlucky, suggesting a potential turnaround is in store. Given his average projected innings of 6.0 and a great strikeout average of 7.3, he will be a significant challenge for the Rays' offense, which ranks a disappointing 21st overall.

Despite the Rays' less-than-ideal offensive metrics, they have a solid player in their best hitter, who boasts a .556 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Pirates excelled in stolen bases, ranking 1st in MLB, yet their overall offensive woes, including being 49th in team home runs, leave much to be desired.

With moneyline odds slightly favoring the Pirates at -125, there is an opportunity for value on the Rays, who could leverage their pitching advantage and potential for offensive improvement in this matchup. As both teams look to secure a vital win, this game promises to be a close contest.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Over his previous 3 GS, Paul Skenes has seen a sizeable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2244 rpm over the entire season to 2173 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

This season, there has been a decline in Ke'Bryan Hayes's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.42 ft/sec last year to 23.88 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 5th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Ryan Pepiot (38.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in Pittsburgh's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball batters like Danny Jansen tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Paul Skenes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game since the start of last season.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 151 games (+22.26 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.