Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 5/6/2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 6, 2025, the stakes remain high in this National League Central matchup. The Cardinals, sitting at 17-19 this season, are currently experiencing a below-average year, while the Pirates, at 12-24, are struggling with one of the worst records in MLB. In their previous meeting, the Cardinals managed to edge out the Pirates, gaining a much-needed win.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start Matthew Liberatore, a left-handed pitcher ranked as the 110th best in MLB, according to advanced stats. Liberatore has a solid ERA of 3.44 this season, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky in his performances. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (47 GB%) could play well against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in the league for home runs, indicating their lack of power. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, which could be problematic.

Opposite him, the Pirates will start Paul Skenes, who boasts an impressive ERA of 2.74 and ranks as the 2nd best pitcher in MLB. Skenes' projections indicate he will likely pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters, showcasing his elite talent on the mound.

While the Cardinals’ offense ranks 11th overall, they have shown strong potential with a 4th best ranking in team batting average. This matchup presents a clear contrast in pitching and hitting capabilities, with the Cardinals needing to capitalize on their offensive strengths against Skenes. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs reflects the expectations of a tightly contested game, emphasizing the importance of every at-bat.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average hurler, Paul Skenes has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 8.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, hitters like Tommy Pham who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Matthew Liberatore.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Gorski, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.60 Units / 16% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.18, St. Louis Cardinals 3.61

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

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