Philadelphia Phillies VS St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 135, Cardinals 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Phillies -135, Cardinals 115
• Total (Over/Under):7.5 -110

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 55%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 45%

Projected Win %:

• Philadelphia Phillies - 53.57%
• St. Louis Cardinals - 46.43%

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals Game Preview & Prediction

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 9, 2024, at Busch Stadium. This National League matchup features the Cardinals, who currently hold a 5-6 record and are having a below-average season, against the Phillies, who hold a 5-5 record and are having an average season.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray, while the Phillies will counter with right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler. Gray is currently ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him a great asset for the Cardinals. Wheeler, on the other hand, is ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him an elite pitcher for the Phillies.

When it comes to offensive rankings, the Cardinals rank as the 22nd best offense in MLB this season. However, they excel in team batting average, ranking 7th in the league, and team home runs, ranking 5th. Their weakness lies in stolen bases, where they rank 23rd. The Phillies, on the other hand, rank as the 16th best offense in MLB, with a strong team batting average ranking of 8th and an average ranking in team home runs and stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Cardinals have the 2nd best bullpen in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Phillies, on the other hand, rank 14th in bullpen strength.

Looking at the projected statistics for the starting pitchers, Gray is expected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings, allow 2.1 earned runs, strike out 5.0 batters, and allow 4.5 hits and 1.7 walks on average. Wheeler, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allow 2.1 earned runs, strike out 6.1 batters, and allow 5.1 hits and 1.4 walks on average. It is worth noting that Wheeler's ERA is excellent at 0.75, but his xFIP suggests that he may regress going forward.

In terms of team totals, the Cardinals have a low implied team total of 3.57 runs, while the Phillies have an average implied team total of 3.93 runs. THE BAT X projects both teams to score 0.00 runs on average in this game, which is a very low projection.

Considering the current odds, the Cardinals have a moneyline of +110, implying a win probability of 46%, while the Phillies have a moneyline of -130, implying a win probability of 54%. Betting markets expect a close game.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

When estimating his batting average ability, Bryce Harper is projected as the 16th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Sonny Gray in the 76th percentile among all starters in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Over the past two weeks, Nolan Arenado has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 66 games (+3.60 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 74 games (+10.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 3.9 vs St. Louis Cardinals 3.38

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