Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick – 4/21/2025

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies on April 21, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting National League East matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Mets holding a record of 15-7 and the Phillies at 13-9. The Mets look to carry momentum after a recent series where their pitching staff has shown resilience, but they will face a stern challenge against a potent Phillies offense that ranks 5th in the league overall.

Tylor Megill is projected to take the mound for the Mets. Although he has a 2-2 record this season, his ERA of 1.40 suggests he has been effective, albeit with some luck, as his xFIP of 3.41 indicates potential regression. Megill's performance will be pivotal, especially as he faces Aaron Nola, who has struggled this season with a 0-4 record and a concerning ERA of 6.65. Nola's underlying stats suggest he might be due for a turnaround, given his xFIP of 3.45, which points to some tough luck.

Offensively, the Mets have struggled, ranking 20th in the league, particularly in home runs where they sit 22nd. In contrast, the Phillies boast a much stronger lineup, highlighted by their 9th ranking in team batting average. However, their power numbers have been lackluster, ranking 21st in home runs.

With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets view this as a closely contested affair, reflected in the Mets' moneyline of -120, suggesting a slight edge over the Phillies at +100. As the teams gear up for this critical matchup, all eyes will be on the pitchers, particularly how Megill can manage against a challenging Phillies lineup while Nola looks to shake off his early-season woes.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Aaron Nola (43% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball batters like Johan Rojas tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tylor Megill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup projects as the 5th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Tylor Megill's higher usage rate of his fastball this season (66.6 compared to 56.3% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

In the past week, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.9% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.3, New York Mets 4.04

• Date: April 21, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

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