Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 4/26/2024

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ross Stripling - Athletics
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles
• Run Line: Athletics 1.5 110, Orioles -1.5 -130
• Money Line: Athletics 235, Orioles -275
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 29%
• Baltimore Orioles - 71%

Projected Win %:

• Oakland Athletics - 33.27%
• Baltimore Orioles - 66.73%

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles Game Preview & Prediction

On April 26, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Oakland Athletics at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This American League matchup features the Orioles, who are having a great season with a record of 16-8, and the struggling Athletics with a record of 10-16. The Orioles are the home team and are projected to start right-handed pitcher Corbin Burnes, while the Athletics are expected to start Ross Stripling, also a right-handed pitcher.

Burnes has been impressive this season, boasting a 3-0 record with a stellar 2.76 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Burnes is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. His projections indicate that he is likely to pitch around 6.1 innings, allowing an average of 1.8 earned runs and striking out 7.5 batters per game. However, it's worth noting that his 3.46 FIP suggests that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

On the other hand, Stripling has struggled this season with a winless 0-5 record and a 5.34 ERA. Our projections indicate that he is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters per game. Despite his high ERA, his 3.89 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

In terms of offense, the Orioles have been impressive this season, ranking as the 3rd best team in MLB. They have displayed a balanced attack with an average batting rank of 14th, a home run rank of 17th, and a stolen base rank of 17th. Meanwhile, the Athletics have struggled offensively, ranking as the 28th best team in MLB. They have the lowest batting average rank at 30th, but have shown some prowess in stolen bases, ranking 5th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Orioles hold the advantage, ranking as the 11th best bullpen in MLB, while the Athletics rank 27th. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are heavily favored with a moneyline of -275, giving them an implied win probability of 71%. In contrast, the Athletics are significant underdogs with a moneyline of +235 and an implied win probability of 29%.

With the Orioles having a strong record, a talented offense, and a favorable pitching matchup, they are positioned as the favorites in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Athletics will be looking to defy the odds and turn their season around. It's sure to be an exciting matchup between these two teams.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics outfield defense profiles as the 5th-worst out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Noda in the 11th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Corbin Burnes has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, recording an extra 5.5 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cedric Mullins II is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 84 of their last 139 games (+26.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 123 games (+10.13 Units / 7% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.50 Units / 75% ROI)

Athletics vs Orioles Prediction: Athletics 3.01 - Orioles 4.07

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